A forward-looking measure of the US economy in April posted its first rise since June 2008, a private research firm said on Thursday, suggesting a pickup in growth in the second half of 2009. The index of leading indicators, which is supposed to forecast economic trends six to nine months ahead, rose 1 percent in April after a revised 0.2 percent fall the previous month, the New York-based Conference Board said.
"The leading indicators suggest that while the recession will continue in the near term, the declines will be less intense," said Ken Goldstein, a Conference Board economist. Wall Street economists had forecast a rise of 0.8 percent after an initial 0.3 percent March drop. The Conference Board said seven out of 10 measures of economic activity that make up the leading index rose in April. It was the first time in 1 1/2 years that measures showing strength exceeded those showing weakness.
The biggest positive contribution came from stock prices, but lower real money supply put a drag on the index. The coincident index fell to 0.2 percent in April from a 0.6 percent fall in March, while the lagging index fell 0.5 percent in April from a matching 0.5 percent fall the previous month, the Conference Board said. The index was the latest report to give mixed signals about the economy.
It fits reports that show the recession's worst phase may be over, including moderately stronger consumer confidence, unchanged consumer prices and industrial output declining at a slower pace. But other data portray rising unemployment and weak retail sales that have kept cash-strapped consumers limiting their purchases to necessary items.
mid-Atlantic manufa cutting contracts in May: Manufacturing in the US Mid-Atlantic area contracted in May for the eighth consecutive month, a regional Federal Reserve survey released on Thursday showed, but the rate of deterioration slowed slightly. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index came in at minus 22.6 in May versus minus 24.4 in April. Though that was an improvement, it was still weaker than economists' expectations of minus 18.0 and might call into question how quickly the economy is stabilising from the worst recession in decades.
MORTGAGE RATES FALL: US mortgage rates fell in the latest week, trekking closer to a record low set last month. Interest rates on US 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 4.82 percent for the week ending May 21, down from the previous week's 4.86 percent, according to a survey released on Thursday by home funding company Freddie Mac.
Three weeks earlier, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage equalled the record low of 4.78 percent set in the week ending April 2, which was the lowest since Freddie Mac started the Primary Mortgage Market Survey in 1971.
"Long-term fixed-rate mortgage rates have remained below 5.0 percent for the past 10 weeks as the US Treasury and Federal Reserve act to keep interest rates low through security purchases," Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist, said in a statement.
The US government has embarked on an aggressive plan to bring mortgage rates down to levels that will spur demand and help the hard-hit housing market begin to recover. Thirty-year mortgage rates had mostly been on a downward trend since the Fed - the US central bank - unveiled a plan to buy mortgage-backed debt in late November. The Fed has set a goal to buy up to $1.25 trillion of agency MBS, $300 billion of Treasuries and $200 billion of agency debt in 2009. The purchases are part of efforts to lower borrowing costs.
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