On the road again

The Sharif clan has a special affinity for roads and highways. Both in good times and bad! The deposed premier is expected to hit the GT Road today, en route Lahore. A homecoming is ripe, roughly a fortnight after the apex court’s ruling. Most politics is a made-for-TV production these days. Not too long ago, Nawaz Sharif had taken to the GT Road towards Islamabad to restore ‘independent judiciary’. Irony is that his lordships’ decision has forced Nawaz to now travel in the opposite direction on the same highway.

Nawaz wasn’t third-time lucky after all. He has now been chucked out of office three times, one each by the executive (1993), military (1999) and judiciary (2017). This time, though, he had a longer shelf life, serving for a little over four years as PM. The intrigue within the PML-N suggests that Nawaz still remains the party’s nerve center. After all, Nawaz puts the ‘N’ in PML-N, as one commentator put it recently.

Getting into a campaign mode, what can Nawaz rally his troops behind? He has left an arguably mixed legacy. The regime was in good luck as the economic cycle turned for the better on account of record low oil prices cascading into low inflation and low interest rates in recent years. Economic growth rebounded, thanks to rise in domestic demand, improved electricity and gas supplies, and decline in violence.

Macroeconomic stability was restored by the end of the Fund programme. But now it is at risk from tepid growth in non-debt creating inflows (exports, FDI and remittances). No serious headway was observed in reforms like tax administration and tax policy, PSE restructuring/privatization, exchange-rate management etc. In CPEC Nawaz trusted, so the executive’s singular focus became CPEC early-harvest projects.

What eventually did Nawaz in was his clumsy handling of political reforms. He started out well in 2013. The elaborate farewell for former president Zardari, reaching out to the PTI in early days, and a host of APCs on terrorism, were in good political taste. The 2014 dharna, however, threw Nawaz off his game.

Instead of renewing his engagement with the parliament to expedite political reforms in the spirit of the 2006 ‘Charter of Democracy’ (CoD), Nawaz grew increasingly isolated as the khakis started calling the shots on internal security and foreign policies. Now we hear Nawaz referring to the CoD, but it is too late, also a bit rich now that he is in the dock himself.

At times it seemed that the Nawaz bandwagon was just chugging down the highway, all listless and aimless. No cabinet shakeup ever came about. Day by day, Nawaz’s political capital dwindled, even as he spent more time on foreign lands than inside the parliament. Yet, remarkably, PML-N seemed sure to sweep the 2018 elections; such was the assessment of a disorganized opposition. But Panama Papers provided an opening. And Nawaz’s ignored friends and offended foes all pounced on the wounded lion.

Now what? For starters, Nawaz isn’t done yet. If history is any guide, the elder Sharif will be more difficult to handle now that he is out of office. The verdict has divided the public. So Nawaz holds a victim card. He can use it to some effect, starting today. The PPP from Sindh used to play the victim, but it got comprehensively voted out of federal government back in the 2013 elections, on subpar performance.

But Nawaz’s case may be different. He is from Punjab. He has fans in Punjab, who didn’t like him being uprooted from office again. With elections not due for several more months, is it inevitable that Nawaz, playing the victim, will end up challenging the powers that be? The rhetoric may rise in tandem with corruption cases coming up. None of that is good news for Pakistan.

So here we are, on the road again. Nawaz hasn’t defined his ‘enemy’ yet. And his party still holds power in Islamabad and Lahore. Regardless, the spectacle will feature live on TV. Days of political instability have returned. As politicians go after one another, history may repeat itself. Elite conflict in Pakistan may again interfere with electoral process running its course, leaving in its wake flawed political leadership.