US soyabeans rose on Wednesday in a mild rebound from this week's sell-off amid outlooks for this season's domestic stocks to slip to a 32-year low. "We really have not proven that we have rationed supplies," said Don Roose, analyst with US Commodities. "The latest crush figure was much bigger than anticipated and we might need a higher adjustment on crush, shrinking the balance table again."
Roose was referring to the National Oilseed Processors soyabean May crush data that came in bigger than analysts had expected - a sign of the healthy US crush pace. That could spark the US Agriculture Department to trim another 5 million bushels or so off its current 2008-09 US soya ending stocks estimate - now at 110 million bushels.
While Chicago Board of Trade soyabeans for July delivery ended 5 cents higher, up 0.4 percent, at $12.06-1/4 a bushel, the back months representing the 2009 harvest were bigger gainers. The most active new-crop month, November soya, rose 21-1/2 cents, or 2 percent, to $10.50 as traders took profits on their long July/short November spreads.
CBOT old-crop July soya has gained on new-crop November for months as traders bought July and sold November given outlooks for US soyabean stocks to shrink to a two-week supply by the end of the marketing year on August 31. Even with the July/November price difference weakening 16-1/2 cents given the gains in November on Wednesday, July is still at a $1.56 premium.
Part of the strength in November soyabean was attributed to the slow planting pace of soyabeans in the south-eastern Midwest. The key crop states of Illinois and Indiana, which together grow a quarter of the US soya crop, have some 3.3 million acres (1.3 million hectares) of soyabeans yet to seed - about 23 percent of their planned acreage. Usually, more than 90 percent of acreage is planted by this time.
"That brings up the question of what will the yield be," Roose said. A general rule of thumb is soya yields drop off about 1/2 bushel an acre every day a soyabean field is planted after June 20, crop specialists say. Corn and wheat prices lagged soyabeans - both technically weak after dipping below their 100-day moving averages this week - notching one-month lows.
"June into early July is typically a period of negative, seasonal price behaviour for both corn and wheat," said Rich Feltes, senior vice president of MF Global Research. Corn has yet to reach its key yield determining period, July pollination, while it is harvest time for US winter wheat. CBOT July corn saw a mild bounce - ending 3-3/4 cents higher, or 0.9 percent at $4.07-3/4 a bushel. Chicago July wheat was nearly unchanged, up 1/4 cent at $5.66.
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