TTP at the fork

Short of forensic exhibits, the authorities in Islamabad and Washington have enough evidence to believe that the chief of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Baitullah Mehsud, is dead. If that were not true, by now that is five days since his reported death in a CIA-operated drone attack on Wednesday, we would have heard or seen him on our TV screens, thanks to the Taliban's easy access to media.
If his deputy Waliur Rehman could reach out to media and his other deputy Hakeemullah could phone up reporters to deny Baitullah's death, there is no reason for not parading, before the public, their chief, well or ill, whatever his condition. Given that as a routine drill the Taliban cordon off the drone-targeted sites until they could dispose of all the tell-tale marks of damage caused by the strike, the details of his death and the place of his burial may never come to light.
That he was buried in the courtyard of his father-in-law's residence, one may or may not accept this claim by a commander of Baitullah Mehsud's rival group, Turkistan Bhittani. Likewise, Bhittani's assertion that some 40 comrades of Baitullah were also killed in the same drone strike appears to be more a piece of propaganda than reality.
As to whether there was a deadly shootout at a meeting held on Saturday to elect Baitullah's successor, the event has been variously reported, highlighting the element of ambiguity that abounds in the narrative about the circumstances pre- and post-death of the TTP chief.
Admitted a 'tehrik' (movement) does not die out with the removal of its leader and as a practice, more often than not, the second-in-command takes over the leadership instantaneously. But the TTP is not a movement in that sense; it is essentially a pack of warlords, drug barons and religious extremists, living on extortion, kidnapping and robbery, as well as aid sent in from overseas by the vested interest and forces inimical to Pakistan.
Not surprisingly, in the wake of Baitullah's death, there is a scramble to grab the movement's top position, because it places the new occupants in control of assets, arms and cash, estimated at some three billion rupees. We have no authentic account of the so-called battle for succession among Baitullah's close aides and we cannot predict, with any certainty, as to who would be the ultimate winner. But we do think and believe that ultimately, the solution to the issue of succession would emerge from the barrel of a gun.
No doubt in the death of the diminutive but powerful, Baitullah Mehsud - he was only five feet two inches in height - the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan has suffered a serious blow to its morale and unity, a situation likely to worsen, because the battle for succession is not expected to throw up any single winner. None of the wannabes has the charisma and credentials of their erstwhile leader to win over the loyalty of the identity-conscious Pakistani Taliban.
Death of Baitullah Mehsud is the weakest moment in the life of the multi-group TTP, a fact that offers once-in-a-blue-moon chance to intelligence agencies to break up the Tehrik-i-Taliban, by activating their contacts in the tribal belt. There is also a qualitative difference in the timing, when the TTP came into being and now that its unity is under threat over the question of leadership.
The authorities should also sharpen their focus on different lifelines of the TTP, particularly its financing. In fact, there is sufficient intelligence available to the authorities on the network put in place by Baitullah, through which he collected funds from within Pakistan and abroad and delivered cash payments to the families of his foot soldiers and suicide bombers. In the meanwhile, the security forces are expected to consolidate their gains in and around the Taliban bastions and hideouts.