One of Afghanistan's most notorious militia leaders threw his support behind President Hamid Karzai on Monday, the final day of campaigning for this week's tense election. With the outcome of Thursday's ballot hanging on the threat of Taliban-led violence and the clout of old militia chiefs, Karzai's main rival Abdullah Abdullah staged an equally frenetic rally in the capital, Kabul.
-- Chaotic scenes at rally for main challenger
-- Polls predict Karzai lead, but suggest run-off needed
In the north, thousands gave a rapturous welcome to former Uzbek militia chief General Abdul Rashid Dostum, who jetted back to Afghanistan on Sunday from exile in Turkey. "We need to go with Hamid Karzai into the future," Dostum told cheering supporters in Shiberghan, his dusty home city.
Dostum's backing could deliver enough support to swing the election for Karzai in a single round, despite grave fears expressed by the United States and the United Nations over Dostum's possible return to a position in government. Polls have shown Karzai firmly in the lead with about 45 percent of the vote, but not enough to win an outright majority and avoid a run-off against Abdullah, Karzai's former foreign minister who has strong support among ethnic Tajiks in the north.
"We must not let it go to a second round and back Hamid Karzai," the heavily protected Dostum said before throwing red velvet-covered copies of his political manifesto to the crowd. Scuffles broke out backstage before Dostum arrived. A choir, led by a 15-year-old boy, sang "our king is coming".
Abdullah staged an equally chaotic rally in Kabul's National Olympic Stadium, notoriously once used by the Taliban as an execution ground, his security guards beating back enthusiastic supporters with rifle butts. Supporters stampeded through gates and shattered glass doors to get closer to Abdullah, an urbane eye doctor, while others clung precariously to a light tower.
The prospect of violence could hurt Karzai's first-round chances. Taliban militants have vowed to disrupt the poll, which could hurt voter turn-out, especially in the Pashtun south which has overwhelmingly supported Karzai, a Pashtun, in the past. If Karzai fails to win a majority in Thursday's first round, he would face the second-placed candidate, most likely Abdullah, in a run-off in early October.
While Karzai has focused on behind-the-scenes coalition building, Abdullah's campaign has built surprising momentum on the strength of popular rallies across the country. Karzai has secured the endorsements of ethnic chieftains and former militia bosses, but that tactic has raised the alarm of Western donors fearful of a return to power by warlords whose factional fighting in the 1990s tore the country apart.
Few of the former militia chiefs are viewed with more suspicion by the West than Dostum, a whisky-drinking ex-Communist general whose militia repeatedly changed sides during the civil war. Dostum won 10 percent of the vote during the last election in 2004, and his support could help tip the balance for Karzai. Karzai also boosted his chances last week by securing the endorsement of Ismail Khan, a major figure in the important western city of Herat.
Karzai's two vice presidential running mates are former guerrilla chiefs from the Tajik and Hazara minorities, and he has also secured the support of ex-guerrillas from his Pashtun group. Four minor candidates announced on Monday they were withdrawing and throwing their support behind Karzai.
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