India's soyabean output may drop as much as 19 percent in the new season because of failed monsoon rains, reducing soyameal export deals to a trickle, traders and industry officials said on Friday. Planting of soyabeans, India's main summer-sown oilseed crop, was delayed this year as the June-September monsoon rains arrived late in central India, the main producing region in the world's top edible oils buyer.
The delay encouraged farmers to sow late-maturing varieties in 80 percent of the area. "We expect about 8-9 million tonnes output," said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of Mumbai-based trading firm Sunvin Group and past head of many trade bodies including the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade. This compares with the US Department of Agriculture's estimate of 10 million tonnes earlier this month. That amounts to a 9-19 percent decline from last year's 9.6 tonnes produced.
Traders said India's soyameal sales had slowed down because of doubts over the harvest, after the worst monsoon in seven years. "There is not much happening with Indian soyameal at the moment," said one Singapore trader. "Only small qualities in containers got traded. It's very uncertain on the crop front," he said. Last week, traders had said soyameal export deals had virtually stopped after the three-week break in rainfall activity in central India.
Another Mumbai-based trader said this year's soyabean output could be 19 percent lower than last year as deficient rains in the central India would reduce yield as well as bean weight of early-sown varieties. The soyabean growing areas received 21 percent below normal rains until August 25 since the start of the monsoon season on June 1, and for three weeks starting July-end, there was practically no rain over most farms. This year's monsoon had arrived late over the soyabean belt, but revived during early July, helping the sowing of the oilseed crop. But it entered a weak phase from late July to mid-August threatening the output prospect for the early sown varieties.
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