Predicted rains over parts of eastern Australia may not be enough to fully salvage the wheat crop as persistent drier-than-normal weather threatens yields in the region, meteorologists and analysts said on Friday. But lack of rains in northern New South Wales and Queensland states would only impact 10 percent or around 2 million tonnes of the world's fourth-largest wheat exporting country's crop, in contrast to promising yields in the far top producing west.
"It looks like the change we'd been hoping for may be weakening," said Luke Mathews, a commodities analyst for Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Our Western Australian crop is currently looking very good, the Queensland crop is struggling and there are some question marks over parts of western Victoria and New South Wales." In drier eastern regions, there is little rain of up to only five millimetres forecast over the three or four days in the particularly parched northern New South Wales and southern Queensland regions, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Analysts earlier in the week said they were looking for twice that or more over the weekend and early next week to maintain forecasts. "The total crop is still looking at around 22.4 million tonnes if I was to release something today, but the degree of rain that may or may not come could change that by 5 million tonnes on either side," Mathews said. Mathews said he hold off updating his national forecast until September 12 to allow more time for a clearer picture of the crop.
Australia's state commodity forecaster, ABARE, has predicted the 2009/10 wheat crop to be about 22 million tonnes, the best in four years, while private forecasts range between 21 million and 23 million tonnes. Australia harvests wheat from November through to January and exports most of the crop. Ample world supplies of wheat and growth in Australian wheat stocks in 1008/09 were helping supress international wheat prices, only slightly countered by uncertainties of this season's Australian crop.
Western Australia, which will export nearly its entire crop, is expecting around 1-1.5 millimetres of rain by late on Friday, then welcoming drier conditions to at least Tuesday. "If growers get the one to 1.5 millimetres, they will be quite happy, it'll just keep them ticking on at a nice clip," said Mark Paul, a meteorologist for the Bureau of Meteorolgy. "In another month when the growers are looking for finishing rains it becomes more critical," Paul said.
The bureau's outlook for total rainfall in Western Australia over the spring shows a moderate leaning towards a wetter than normal season across much of the south-west of the state, where most of the wheat is grown. The pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across the state is a mainly a result of warm conditions in the Indian Ocean.
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