Just over three years after the rollout of mobile broadband (3G and 4G network technologies) in Pakistan, the cellular operators seem to have hit a plateau so far as acquiring new customers is concerned. Recall, it wasn’t that long ago when the four 3G operators were busy cumulatively adding about a million new customers every month. But this calendar year, they all seem to be catching their breath.
Calculations based on statistics released by the telecoms watchdog show that in the seven months ending July 2017, operators added 2.24 million new 3G subscriptions – or 0.32 million a month. That’s roughly a third of their hitherto-stellar average monthly additions. Subscriptions reached 36.9 million as of July, growing a mere 6 percent since December – a far cry from the double-digit growth in recent years.
Some saving grace for mobile broadband subscription numbers came from the 4G/LTE service, which is a relatively speedier cousin of the 3G’s. Since December end, the three 4G operators have added 3.19 million new connections, more than doubling the final tally to 6.1 million in July. It’s the strongest growth spree seen in the 4G segment in recent times, primarily led by Zong and supported by Telenor and Jazz.
Notwithstanding 4G’s remarkable growth and because of its small base, there is a concern that the needle won’t be moving much vis-à-vis mobile broadband uptake among the rest of the overall cellular pie. The overall mobile broadband connections (3G+4G) stood at nearly 43 million as of July end. That’s a 31 percent cut in the overall 140 million cellular subs, which also include 97 million 2G subs. That’s an improvement from 28 percent seen in December 2016, but a retarded one, thanks to marginal 3G growth.
With 3G subs slowing down, mobile broadband subs may remain stuck at about a third of the bigger cellular pie for some time. That will lead to a significant chunk of the population – some 40-50 million 2G users – losing out on the dividends of high-speed broadband. Gradually, the economic landscape is turning digital – from shopping and socializing to payments and reservations. Millions in Pakistan are already afflicted with inequality of opportunities – technology mustn’t exacerbate those circumstances.
To cater the next 50 million, a renewed focus and a fresh round of investments are in order. Apparently eager to target the educated middle class in dense, urban areas, the mobile broadband operators must invest more in the rural belt. The federal government should make it easier for them to do so. It is time to take critical policy measures, which include bringing the sector’s tax rates down, auctioning new spectrum regularly at reasonable price, and incentivizing an efficient buildup of broadband backhaul.
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