Copper retreated in light trade on Tuesday as investors consolidated positions after recent gains that have more than doubled the industrial metal's price this year. Analysts are looking to China's trade data due out on Friday, which is expected to show that imports of the world's top copper consumer may have dropped for the second straight month in August due to increased inventories from record imports in the first half.
"That is probably the next key signpost for the base metals market," said commodity strategist David Moore at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "But I think base metals prices might correct lower in the next three to six months given the build in stocks recently and also the softer level of China's imports." Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell $39 to $6,285 a tonne by 0201 GMT, after gaining $44 on Monday, thanks to a weaker dollar.
Shanghai's benchmark third-month copper eased 240 yuan to 49,300 yuan ($7,218) a tonne while the most-active December contract fell 200 yuan to 49,320 yuan. The market is expected to be more active with the US reopening after the long Labour Day weekend although trading may be limited to narrow ranges after last week's mixed US employment report suggested a slow and protracted economic recovery.
"Overall, we continue to maintain that commodity complexes should remain steady over the short term, with occasional corrections likely used as buying opportunities," MF Global commodity analyst Edward Meir said in a note. "Investor sentiment is still heavily biased towards the 'recovery trade', and the generally decent macro numbers that are coming out should continue to support this view."
Battery material lead was bid at $2,339 a tonne in early Asian hours after peaking at $2,384.25 a tonne on Monday, a tad shy of 16-month highs seen on Friday, fed by supply worries following smelter shutdowns in China due to pollution concerns.
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