US soyabean futures fell nearly 3 percent on Friday and the benchmark November contract at the Chicago Board of Trade dipped below $9 a bushel for the first time since July on prospects for a huge US crop. The US Department of Agriculture in a monthly report raised its estimate of the US soyabean crop to a record 3.245 billion bushels, right in line with trade expectations.
But favourable weather for ripening crops in the Midwest hinted at additional increases later on. "Big crops typically get bigger," said Don Roose of US Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa. USDA pegged the average US soya yield at 42.3 bushels per acre, while at the Chicago Board of Trade, grain traders said they believe the final yield could be closer to 44 bushels.
Traders also noted strong yields from the early harvest under way in the US Mississippi River Delta. The only potential obstacle to a bumper soyabean harvest would be a cold snap halting growth of the Midwest crop, which is maturing later than normal after a cool summer. For now, weather forecasts look mild.
"The threat of any damaging cold weather continues to be pushed further and further away. It looks less and less likely for any damaging freeze in September," said Mike Palmerino, an agricultural meteorologist with DTN Meteorlogix. Soyabeans also faced pressure from a slowdown in demand from China, the top buyer of US soyabeans. China's soyabean imports in August were down 29 percent from the previous month, Chinese customs data showed.
A drop of nearly 4 percent in crude oil prices weighed on the CBOT soya complex as well. Commodity funds appeared to be reducing their holdings in CBOT agricultural futures by selling long positions in soyabeans and buying back short positions in corn and wheat. At the CBOT, the benchmark November soyabean contract settled down 23-1/2 cents at $9.03 per bushel, after trading below $9 for the first time in nearly two months.
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