Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki announced on Thursday a new coalition that will run against former Shia Muslim allies in January's national elections, raising the prospect of intra-sectarian strife. In a speech in Baghdad's fortified Green Zone, Maliki left the door open to working with other political groups, but his allies told Reuters his State of Law coalition had no desire to join a rival alliance headed by other powerful Shia parties.
"The birth of State of Law represents an historic milestone and development in establishing a modern Iraq built on peaceful, nationalist principles," Maliki said. Ambitions to bring about such a turning point for Iraq's fragile democracy will be tested in the first general election since 2005, which takes place just as US troops prepare to withdraw and local forces seek to defeat a stubborn insurgency. A smooth vote may help consolidate security gains, but many fear friction among Shia parties may spark greater violence.
Maliki's Dawa party, which was part of a broad Shia alliance that swept to power after 2005 polls and has dominated majority Shia Iraq since, has chosen not to join the recently formed, mostly Shia, Iraqi National Alliance (INA). The INA is headed by the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (ISCI), a powerful Shia party which has close ties to Iran.
Those close to the prime minister say Maliki, spurning calls to join the INA, wanted a broader coalition including a greater number of minority Sunni Arabs and Kurds, which might give him a better chance of winning a second term. ISCI member Mohammed al-Bayati and analysts said there could be some form of partnership between the INA and State of Law after the election results are known.
"We wish them success ... A national front will be formed in the next parliament in participation with the INA," Bayati said. Iraqi political groupings are fluid and alliances have shifted dramatically in the past. "No side is likely to get a majority, and there will be a need for partnerships after the results. Such talk before then is difficult because I think there will be heated competition," said Hameed Fadhel, an analyst at Baghdad University.
Maliki, whose Dawa party was founded in the 1950s to increase the role of Shia Islam in politics, is trying to rebrand himself as a nationalist and claim credit for a sharp drop in violence in Iraq. Another reason Maliki may have spurned the INA is a belief it gave ISCI too much clout relative to the party's popular support, which has ebbed since 2005. It is also possible Maliki declined to join the INA because it refused to guarantee him a second term if it wins.
Analysts said Maliki's coalition of 40 groups, which appears to include more minorities than the INA, was a strong contender. "This coalition will win if it runs alone, because the Sunnis have joined them in force ... Maliki's chances are strong in this coalition," said political analyst Mazin al-Shammari.
In facing off against ISCI Maliki will battle a well-funded, well-organised party with deep roots across Iraq. Maliki, who has shaken an image of weakness to emerge as a forceful figure in Iraq, alarmed his political partners when he made wide gains in provincial polls this past January.
The split in Maliki and ISCI's Shia political bloc, now the biggest in parliament, is certain to boost tensions in a country still plagued by violence. Yet it could also mark a maturing of Iraq's democracy if there was a credible shift away from the sectarian and identity politics which has defined Iraq's legislative system to date. The INA includes the movement of the fiery anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and a few Kurds and Sunnis.
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