UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy on Tuesday raised its 2009 grain crop forecast for Ukraine to 42.7 million tonnes from a previous estimate of 41.7 million due to a higher maize harvest. It said the increase will allow Ukraine to export 19.0 million tonnes of grain, including 8.35 million of wheat, in the 2009/10 season against a previous export forecast of 17.7 million, including 7.75 million of wheat.
"The fast pace of harvesting allows us to predict the average maize yield at least at last year's level of about 4.1 tonne per hectare. So, our maize production estimate is raised to 8.6 million tonnes," UkrAgroConsult said in a report. "The forecast for the total Ukrainian grain crop was also increased." The Agriculture Ministry on Tuesday also revised its grain crop forecast for 2009 to 42.9 million tonnes from 45 million, according to Interfax news agency. In 2008 the harvest reached a record 53.3 million tonnes.
The ministry also forecast the 2009 wheat crop at about 20 million tonnes. UkrAgroConsult has also increased its harvest forecast to 20 million tonnes from a previous 19.65 million. The consultancy said a relatively high grain crop would allow Ukraine to keep its grain exports in the 2009/10 season at a high level of 19 million tonnes compared with a record 25 million in 2008/09. It said they had raised export forecasts for 2009/10 after seeing large shipments in the first months of the season.
"Exports during the first three months of the current season exceeded all possible expectations and set new monthly records of grain shipment. Its processing products in July and August exceeded last year," UkrAgroConsult said. "High exports along with rising grain output estimates will allow us to increase the total export estimate for the season by 1.3 million tonnes to 19 million."
Last week UkrAgroConsult said grain exports in the first three months of the 2009/10 season reached 6.66 million tonnes, exceeding a record 6.48 million in the same period in 2008/09. The consultancy added Ukraine and Russia will also take advantage of a lower than expected fall in demand.
"An important factor boosting exports was not as large a decline in demand for grain which had been expected due to large crops in importer countries. The demand instead declined in the more expensive milling wheat, and Ukraine and Russia are not exporters of expensive grain," it said. UkrAgroConsult said feed wheat and feed barley dominated the exports.
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