Sales at US retailers fell in September as car-buying incentives expired, but excluding autos they were up a second straight month, raising cautious optimism consumer spending could support economic recovery. Retail sales fell 1.5 percent last month, the biggest decline since December, after surging by a revised 2.2 percent in August, the Commerce Department said.
Sales excluding motor vehicles rose by a bigger-than-expected 0.5 percent, building on a 1 percent increase in August and beating economists' expectations for a 0.2 percent gain. The increase cemented the view that consumer spending recovered and the economy started growing in the third quarter after the worst US recession since the 1930s. "There's solidity, or new strength, in all discretionary spending categories," said Pierre Ellis, senior economist at Decision Economics in New York. "We evidently have hit the bedrock level of consumer spending and can even see a little bit of normalcy going forward."
Overall retail sales in September were dragged down by a drop in vehicle purchases following the end of the government's popular "cash for clunkers" program in August. The plan gave consumers cash to trade in aging gas-guzzlers for new models that are more fuel-efficient. Motor vehicle and parts sales tumbled 10.4 percent, the largest fall since August 2005, after rising 7.8 percent the prior month.
Sales outside motor vehicles in September were probably supported by back-to-school buying, as well as the best furniture and home furnishings sales since January 2007. "Underlying consumer demand is a lot stronger than what some people think. Typically the back-to-school is a good predictor for holiday sales," said John Canally, economist at LPL Financial in Boston.
Canally said consumer spending, which normally accounts for about 60 percent of US economic activity, would prove vital in fostering growth strong enough to create jobs. The US jobless rate hit a 26-year high of 9.8 percent last month and many economists worry that relentlessly high unemployment will be a drag on consumer spending and take some steam out of the economy's nascent recovery. Retail sales in September also were supported by a 1.1 percent rise in receipts at gasoline stations, which enjoyed a 4.7 percent sales increase in August. Excluding both gasoline and motor vehicles, retail sales rose 0.4 percent.
Businesses, meanwhile, were still slashing stocks of unsold goods to cope with weak demand. A separate Commerce Department report showed US business inventories fell a bigger-than-expected 1.5 percent in August, the biggest drop since December. A report from the Labour Department showed US import prices rose just 0.1 percent in September as the price of imported petroleum dipped.
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS DIP: Separately, US mortgage applications dipped last week as interest rates on 30-year loans rose above 5 percent for the first time in four weeks after falling to a four-month low, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. The 5 percent level is seen as a psychological tipping point, and has recently sparked a boom in refinancings.
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