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The dollar eased against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, trimming some of the previous day's sharp gains as investor selling of stretched higher-yielding currencies and the euro paused. The euro had its steepest drop since early August on Monday, falling nearly 1 percent, and the dollar index posted its best daily gain since September as investors unwound short dollar positions after a sharp fall in stocks and commodities.
The euro drew some demand from Asian investors, recovering from the day's lows, while the Aussie rebounded as some market players remained doubtful that the low-yielding dollar would strengthen further.
But other traders said the dollar may rise more in the near term as short-term speculators take profits from their bets this year on risky assets with the approach of their business year-end, which typically comes in November. A rise in US Treasury yields was also a factor to support the greenback, traders and analysts said.
The 10-year note yield rose to its highest level in two months the previous day before rebounding in Asian trade on bargain hunting. The yield rise came as the market fretted about a record debt sale this week and about when the Federal Reserve might start reversing its policy of low interest rates.
The euro edged up from late US levels to $1.4891 but was well down from a 14-month peak of $1.5064 hit on Monday after an opinion article in a newspaper published by the People's Bank of China suggested the Asian giant should lift the share of the euro and yen in its foreign exchange reserves. Traders expected chart support for the euro at $1.4850 and $1.4830, with a break of the latter opening the way to $1.4675.
The dollar has been a favoured trade to sell against higher-yielding currencies this year, with the prospect of low US rates for a prolonged period undermining it. Data late last week showed currency speculators increased their bets against the dollar in the week to October 20 with the value of net short positions rising to $18.65 billion from $17.99 billion a week earlier. That heavy short positioning made investors hesitate to sell the dollar further, analysts said, creating conditions for a pullback.
The dollar index, a measure of the greenback's performance against six other major currencies, fell 0.2 percent to 75.924, but above a 14-month low of 74.94 set last week. The dollar hit its highest in a month against the yen, touching 92.33 yen before falling 0.1 percent to 92.12 yen. It hit an eight-month low of 88.01 early in October, not far off last January's 13-year low of 87.10.
Traders said dollar selling orders are lined up above 92.30-50 yen, capping it for now. But a rise as high as 94 yen may be possible, a senior manager for a Japanese securities firm said. The Australian dollar rose from Monday's low of $0.9125 on good support from buyers around that level and was holding at $0.9180, below last week's 14-month high at $0.9330.

Copyright Reuters, 2009

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