China's soya stocks at ports seen as low

China's port soyabean stocks have fallen by as much as half in the past three months to 2-3 million tonnes, as imports slowed and crushers shunned expensive government stocks ahead of the new harvest. Tight local supplies in the world's biggest soyabean buyer mean imports could bounce back above 4 million tonnes a month by the end of the year, and even some Chinese crushers shutting down next month if there are delays in US shipments, traders said.
Even when the new harvest is available, high prices and low quality are expected to put many buyers off, with some traders estimating arrivals of 4 million tonnes or more in December, near the June record of 4.7 million tonnes. Some Chinese crushers said harvest delays in the United States, the world's top soya exporter, could disrupt the loading schedule for shipments due to arrive in the last two weeks of November.
"Our cargoes will be delayed for more than one week, but large arrivals later could pressure the market," said one soya trader at a major crusher in Dalian. China's soya imports in September fell to the lowest in 11 months at 2.75 million tonnes and imports were expected to be low again in October as tight supplies in South America pushed up prices. The tight soya supply has driven up prices of imported soyabeans offered at ports by 5 percent since last week to 3,900 yuan ($571.2) per tonne. "There are not many stocks left at crushers here. Stocks at ports have also been drawn down quickly," said one soya trading executive in Shandong.
Liang Yong, an analyst at Galaxy Futures Co Ltd, said stocks at ports had fallen below 3 million tonnes, lower than the 3.4-3.5 million tonnes average in the past two to three months. Stocks could already be as low as 2 million tonnes, according to an industry website (www.chinafeedonline.com).
"By the end of this month, many crushers will have used up their stocks and if ships are further delayed until mid-November, many crushers will have to shut down," said Gao Chunlai, an analyst with the website, which monitors crushing operations, told Reuters.
Beijing has agreed to offer subsidies on sales of 1.95 million tonnes of soya reserves to some crushers in north-eastern provinces but, without subsidies, crushers were still unwilling to take soyabeans from state reserves. Only 106,100 tonnes of state soya stocks have been sold since July. One major crusher has shown its interest in subsidised state reserves, since it cancelled two US cargoes last week in order to take advantage of state-backed sales, traders said.