With international powers increasingly suffering from a Pakistan-fatigue, all this local talk of publicizing the ‘narrative’, without fixing the product, is useless. A country’s foreign influence is a function of its domestic strength. In the three main areas of interest – politics, economy and security – the country has accumulated a mixed scorecard for any domestic strength to visibly emerge for others to take notice.
On the political front, the 2013 elections were remarkable in the sense that a lawful handover occurred, on schedule, from one elected party to another. The world applauded as Pakistan crossed that significant milestone. That handover exercise will most likely repeat itself on schedule next year. But the world won’t be holding its breath this time. For the handover will be in name only, lacking the substance of democratic accountability.
Since Musharraf was ousted in 2008, a mix of political incompetence and deep-state influence has gradually made elected politicians irrelevant in calling the shots on matters of internal security and foreign relations. The current ruling party didn’t give much importance to the parliament, their source of legitimacy and power. Hence, civilian influence was drastically undercut, a process also precipitated by dharnas fronted by squabbling politicians. The apex court didn’t mind deposing two premiers in five years.
Political maturity is not the only thing going into relapse. The country’s economic situation is also in peril, depressing an upbeat mood seen in recent years. The window of opportunity for the necessary economic reforms was woefully missed in 2014-16. Pretty soon, tough economic decisions will need to be made to avert a BOP crisis the scale of which the country last saw in 2008. Amid political instability, the government will find it hard to keep the market’s trust.
If foreign exchange earnings – sourced majorly from equity inflows like exports, remittances, and inward FDI – continued to dwindle, dollars will have to be replenished from external sources, creating more debt obligations. CPEC, which is billed as a game-changer for Pakistan, isn’t exactly a source of forex earnings yet; rather it is currently depleting forex. And the jury is still out on how it can help Pakistan’s exports. If IMF, the perennial BOP-financier, and a handful of multilateral donors who are prone to signals from Washington DC don’t entertain Pakistan in a BOP crisis, recourse to Chinese loans will further increase Pakistan’s dependency on its all-weather friend.
Domestic security is certainly one area where Pakistan has gotten things under control. Keeping safety and security is an ongoing process of continuous vigilance. But the violent turmoil that militants unleashed in 2007 is now, thankfully, nowhere in sight. That has come about thanks to sacrifices of tens of thousands of Pakistani lives, among them thousands of valiant soldiers, as well as spending running into billions of dollars. A whole generation has grown up in the shadow of violence, with curtailed freedoms and missed opportunities.
Yet, Pakistan’s sacrifices go unacknowledged when the US says ‘do more’. Now even China has, albeit indirectly, pointed out Pakistan-based militant networks, among some others, as threats to regional peace. The new foreign minister has been busy touring key world capitals to solicit support for Pakistan’s position on Afghanistan and the region. It is unlikely that the audience will be too receptive. But Pakistan’s fight against militancy, which has the public’s support, must continue regardless of external validation.
The three strands – politics, economy, and security – are interlinked. It is indeed time to put the house in order, or Pakistan will keep running into same-old crises.
There is a sequence to getting it right. First, the politicians need to stop fighting and start governing effectively through the needed political and economic reforms. Security reforms, which require immense political capital in Pakistan’s context, can only follow after. The PML-N missed a golden opportunity in this term. But it’s never too late to learn a lesson or two.
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