PML-N seems to have saved the ultimate embarrassment for some other day, having won the NA-120 by-polls, quite convincingly. There is no dearth of comments, analyses, opinions, judgments, on how sweet or bitter the victory for the ruling party is, and what it holds for the future. Very rarely does a convincing victory ring legit alarm bells for the winner, but this one has.
NA 120 is for PML-N what NA-207 Larkana is for PPP and NA-246 Azizabad for MQM stronghold. So while the victory margin of 14,000 votes is pretty comfortable, it is nowhere close to what a victory in a stronghold looks like in Pakistani electoral history. MQM’s NA-246 resounding victory in by-elections in 2015 is a case in point, where the MQM headquarter raids were afresh and the party had just started facing a massive Rangers operation. The PPP too has won the Larkana constituency without any qualms, in all times, good and bad.
Yes, by-elections generally lack participation, but this one was not any other by-election. It was a seat vacated by none other than the former PM himself, and contested by the former first lady, and the campaign run by the almost de-facto party head Maryam Nawaz. A considerable drop in votes for PML-N would not have mattered as much, had PTI’s vote also gone down by even close to as much as PML-N’s.
It is too small a sample to allow a peek into what general elections 2018 may have in the bag. But the fault lines are visible. It would have been put down to the Panama decision, had PTI’s vote bank increased proportionately. Granted, it may have had an impact, but the more visible dent seems to have been caused by two religious independent candidates.
As independent as they were, they had the roots to Mumtaz Qadri and Hafiz Saeed. Both hugely controversial, yet reasonably popular in Punjab. Combined, these two candidates secured 11 percent of the polled votes. Recall that both these elements were not there in 2013 elections. It would be naïve to think that Panama decision swayed these voters away from PML-N. It is indeed more plausible that the events related to Mumtaz Qadri and Hafiz Saeed had a huge role to play, and PML-N is believed to be responsible for both events.
That the PPP had lost most of its voters to PTI in 2013 is almost a fact now. That it benefited PML-N is also well recognized. If NA-120 voting pattern is a trend, it should worry PML-N, as it could play in favour of PTI. The ECP and the powers that be may eventually disallow mainstreaming of such factions, but there is always the possibility of such elements contesting as independents. The threat is very real, and in constituencies of lesser strength, PML-N would have to pull its A game, to combat it.
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