The US dollar rose against the yen and euro in holiday-thinned trading on Monday as investors assessed the outlook for the greenback after a recent rally. Trade was light with many market participants in Europe off between Christmas and the New Year. Markets in the United Kingdom were also closed for a public holiday.
In Japan, Monday was the last working day of the year for many companies, which resume normal business on January 4. "The dollar has recovered a bit from its losses last Thursday, but I wouldn't put too much into the dollar's gains today," said Vassili Serebriakov, senior currency strategist, at Wells Fargo in New York.
"Liquidity is very light and the news flow is quite thin and there's really been no real direction for the dollar at the moment. We have to wait for next week to get any sense as to where the dollar is going," he said. Market impact from news of an attempt to blow up a passenger plane flying to Detroit over the holiday weekend was seen as limited.
The focus for many market watchers is whether the dollar's rise will continue next month following its rebound from a 14-year low against the yen in November. The dollar has risen broadly in recent weeks on optimism the US economy may be poised for better growth in 2010, said Andrew Bekoff, chief investment officer for Family Office Group in New York.
Gains against the euro in particular were bolstered by concerns euro zone economies won't recover as quickly, he said. The ICE Futures' dollar index, a gauge of its value against six major currencies, has gained nearly 4 percent so far this month, on pace for its best monthly performance since February.
On Monday, the index was flat at 77.642, and off a 3-1/2-month high of 78.449 set last week. In late afternoon trading, the euro was down slightly versus the dollar at $1.4380. The dollar was up 0.5 percent at 91.62 yen, not far off a two-month high set last week. The euro was up 0.3 percent at 131.78 yen.
The yen fell broadly as investors took advantage of quiet markets to position themselves ahead of a likely pick-up in activity in the new year. Analysts have also pointed to the robust correlation between dollar/yen and 10-year US Treasury yields, currently at 93 percent, according to Reuters data. US Treasury yields have risen sharply this month and are likely to see a further increase this week given Treasury supply of around $118 billion in a thin market.
Ten-year yields were about 11 basis points away from revisiting the 3.95 percent high for the year, while those of two-year Treasuries were up more than 1.0 percent even though the outlook for US interest rates has not changed. Analysts believe that if 10-year yields make a push for the 4 percent handle, dollar/yen could move above 92.
Dollar/yen has become more sensitive of late to Treasury yields and interest rate expectations because the currency pair has lagged major crosses during this month's rally in the greenback when investors started to price in a stronger US recovery. The dollar has risen 1 percent against the yen this year so far after falling roughly 19 percent in 2008. Other factors that could also move the dollar this week include Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index for October and US consumer confidence for December on Tuesday.
Comments
Comments are closed.