Dollar rises versus yen

The dollar rose to its highest level in more than three months against the yen on Thursday in holiday-thinned trading after data showed US jobless claims fell to their lowest since mid-2008, affirming optimism about the economy. The dollar also benefited from year-end buying after being sold off for most of 2009, as fund managers squared up their portfolios at the end of the year.
For 2009, however, the ICE Futures' dollar index was down 4.1 percent this year, but for December it was up about 4 percent, its best monthly performance since January. "It's year-end buying for the dollar. In the case of dollar/yen, the pair was supported by the good jobless claims data, which led to the back-up in benchmark Treasury yields," said Jacob Oubina, senior currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.
The greenback also erased losses against the euro. A view that recent positive data is a harbinger of strong growth next year, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than expected, supported the dollar. Thursday's report showing Americans filed fewer jobless claims in the latest week than at any time in 17 months added to the rate-hike outlook.
Benchmark 10-year notes hit a session high of 3.92 percent on Thursday after the stronger-than-expected jobless claims data. That yield was near the year's highest closing level at 3.95 percent touched in August and has underpinned the dollar versus the yen.
The 25-day rolling correlation between dollar/yen and 10-year Treasury yields on Thursday was at a strong 94 percent, the highest in a year. The dollar/yen pair over the past month has moved in tandem with US Treasury yields and interest rate prospects because the currency pair has fallen behind major crosses during this month's rally in the greenback as investors started to price in a stronger US recovery.
DOLLAR'S DECEMBER RALLY: In mid-afternoon trading, the dollar was up 0.6 percent at 93.03 yen after earlier hitting 93.14, its highest since early September. The euro fell as low as $1.4308 and was last little changed at $1.4325, off an overnight peak of $1.4441.
The euro finished the year up 2.5 percent against the dollar, although it has shed about 4.4 percent in December. Sterling continued its assault higher, rising 0.6 percent to $1.6170. On the year, sterling has gained 10.6 percent against the dollar. For most of the year, the dollar fell sharply as investors bet the US economy would lag recovery elsewhere and the Fed would hold rates at record lows for an extended period.
That trend began to change in December with stronger-than-expected US data, and though traders chalk up some of the greenback's gains this month to position-squaring, they also point to a more constructive tone for the currency. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were among the best performers among the major currencies in 2009, rising nearly 27 percent and 24.3 percent, respectively, against the greenback.
Next week, investors will look to the release of US monthly payrolls data on Friday where further indications of an improving US economy could lift the dollar. "As the US economy slowly emerges from the worst economic recession since the Great Depression, it is now clear that the US labour market is also on the cusp of a turnaround after shedding a staggering 7.2 million jobs over a period of 23 consecutive months," said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.