The country is heading towards water crisis in coming summer season due to combination of below normal winter rains and snowfall, which caused by El Nino conditions, started in June 2009, and consequently suppressing winter precipitation over Pakistan.
The agriculturists have showed concern over the forecast of below normal rainfall in winter and believed that its impact on rabi crops will cause 15 percent less production, which means that the country has to suffer a loss of Rs 150-200 billion.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department here on Saturday forecast below normal winter rains during January and February in most part of the country. Also, during the month of December 2009, 37 percent below normal winter rain reported from Pakistan except in Balochistan that received good rains.
According to them, most part of the country would receive significantly below normal winter rains during the month of January and February. Due to abnormal dry weather conditions, the rabi crops especially in barani areas, would remain under sever moisture stress, and the water scarcity in urban areas may further be aggravated.
According to them, due to low rainfall during last monsoon season, Pakistan was already experiencing water scarcity that has further aggravated during the current winter. At present, the snowfall over northern areas, Kashmir and galliyat (a natural resource of water runoff during dry summer months) remained well below normal so far, and the water shortage therefore, may further be aggravated during the coming months. The concerned authorities are requested to consider this weather outlook regarding water management, in particular to mitigate the shortage of water availability during the coming months.
They observed that a high-pressure area due to El Nino conditions is prevailing over Pakistan since November 2009, and it is blocking the winter rains for the country. The current El Nino conditions that started in June 2009, and consequently suppressed monsoon rains in Pakistan, are still continuing and expected to last till spring 2010.
Meanwhile, the closing month of 2009 witnessed well below normal rainfall in most part of the country. Punjab was the most rain deficit area, as it received 96 percent below normal rainfall, followed by NWFP where 58 percent below normal rain was recorded. Sindh also witnessed rain shortage where 43 percent below normal rainfall was reported and Kashmir 12 percent. However, Balochistan received good rains against its normal trend, 78 percent above normal rainfall was reported there.
Expressing concern over the forecast, Agri-Forum Pakistan Chairman Muhammad Ibrahim Mughal said according to a careful estimate this phenomenon of low rain would cause 15 percent less production of various major and minor crops, including wheat, gram, sugarcane, mustard, sunflower, maize and some vegetables. "Fifteen percent less production mean that the country has to suffer a loss of Rs 150-200 billion," he claimed.
According to climate experts, El Nino (Spanish word for 'the boy') is a quasi periodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific with a roughly five year cycle. It is comprised of an oceanic component, called El Nino (or La Nina), which is characterised by warming or cooling of surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and an atmospheric component, known as the Southern Oscillation, which is characterised by changes in surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. The two components are coupled: when the warm oceanic phase (known as El Nino) is in effect, surface pressures in the western Pacific are high, and when the cold phase is in effect (La Nina), surface pressures in the western Pacific are low.
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