Unlike people, nation states don't make New Year resolutions. It's the legacies that creep into the future of inter-state relations, influencing their attitudes and formulations of their policies. Indian Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor's bombast on the penultimate day of 2009 is likely to do just that.
Looking to the future, he said India is preparing for a possible "two-front war" with China and Pakistan, and then added "the Indian army is also studying lessons from the US-launched Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan in 2001". Pat came Pakistan's stiff riposte: "This statement betrays a hostile intent, as well as a hegemonic and jingoistic mindset," said Pakistan Foreign Office spokesman, promising a matching response to the Indian aggression.
That is hardly an auspicious beginning to the year 2010 as it would wear through in this region. But more ominous developments are likely to appear on Pakistan's western horizon, where in the wake of President Obama's new Afghan policy an eerie feeling of a gathering storm has begun taking hold of the mind of the average Pakistani.
Pakistan's perspective, shared fully, both by the people and the government, on the US-led surge of Nato troops in Afghanistan, brings it into a perceptional clash with the United States. If the final victory of the coalition forces in Afghanistan is in the realm of uncertainty, what we feel certain is the massive collateral impact of the surge on Pakistan's bordering areas.
What if the coalition forces lose and quit in a cut-and-run mode, Pakistan would face a severe challenge of an unstable Afghanistan as it was when the US left, leaving behind a political vacuum that was filled by warring warlords and Jihadist forces. Are we going to witness the future Afghanistan as the 'liberated' Iraq - with all the daily-basis slaughters on the streets of Baghdad?
Perhaps, more dangerous than the Afghan imbroglio may be the fate of Pakistanis inhabiting areas adjoining Afghanistan, where Americans believe - contrary to any tangible evidence - al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban have safe havens to plot attacks on coalition troops. No doubt, despite people's intense opposition, the Pakistani authorities have managed to put up with drone attacks in the FATA region, but should the same be extended to Balochistan, the government would not be able to withstand public pressure.
There is a growing public disenchantment with the so-called war on terror, a reality that anti-Pakistan elements can bring into play by shifting the blame from the Taliban to other forces, particularly the Blackwaters and such other entities, who officials now insist, work for India. As we enter 2010, the Pak-US relationship has arrived at a tipping point, where one wrong move can push it over the edge.
Whatever the findings of the Western thinktanks and analysts, the fact remains that the US-led coalition forces cannot win the war in Afghanistan without the active and willing co-operation of Pakistan. The geopolitics of the region surrounding Pakistan is going to remain in ferment, not alone because of the war in Afghanistan - there are many other equally important factors that impinge upon regional security and balance of power.
It is here that we see a cluster of nuclear powers, some fully developed and at least one more, in Iran, on its way. How they weave into the international nuclear system that is to be seen, for it is fundamentally not the IAEA regimes that they would like to fit into, but their mutual accommodations.
Then, this region abuts onto the arena of China-India rivalry for superpower status, which has the potential, in the distant future, of raising the spectre of Cold War. The region also has the inglorious distinction of hosting more poor than the rest of the world put together, providing a breeding ground for social disharmony and political agitation.
As Aristotle said: "Poverty is parent of revolution and crime". Yes, indeed, poverty is the mother of revolution and crime. The untapped energy potential of Central Asia too has strong geopolitical relevance for the future of peace and stability in the region we inhabit. Rightly then, circa 2010 is going to be a testing time for Pakistan and we would stand up to its challenges only if, we, as a nation, are united and our leadership leads from the front.
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