Energy crisis deepens

There is severe load-shedding in the country due to less production of electricity. It seems that the situation is going from bad to worse as load-shedding is to continue for whole of the year. On the other side, there is severe gas load-management due to its increased demand in winter.
Though supply to industry and CNG stations is closed for three days a week, in different zones of the country, but still pressure for domestic supply is not sufficient in different areas. It is clear that gas is not available for domestic use, what to talk of industrial needs. The energy crisis is so alarming that there is no silver lining in the dark.
It is pity that the previous regimes did not take care of the future demand of energy and worked on an ad hoc basis, which can be termed as offence and the situation is so grave that there is load-shedding for every alternate hour, which has disrupted daily business and life is paralysed. Industry is the worst hit.
Resultantly, due to the closure of business enterprises, industrial labour is loosing its jobs, which might result in a deteriorating law and order situation and increased crime levels where unemployment is the major cause. Employers are in desperate condition as millions of rupees investment is at stake.
There is no considerable improvement in the supply position, despite some steps taken by the Government, as making clocks one hour ahead, closing of shops early in the evening and with weekly two days holidays etc. It is astonishing that such a serious situation is being tackled with childish measures.
Though the proposed rental power is turned down on severe resistance by the business community, but the real, short-term solution lies in the fact that the existing installed capacity should be fully utilised.
It is depressing to note that due to technical shortcomings, inappropriate planning and an inter-corporate circular debt of Rs 418 billion, only 60% of capacity is being utilised out of 18,167 MW installed capacity. It is the right time that instead of thermal-based electricity; it should be produced from indigenous resources of coal, hydel and other alternatives.
Hydel electricity is the only cheap source of electricity produced by constructing dams (small and big). Currently, total electricity that can be produced from hydel resources ie, Mangla, Warsak, Tarbela, Ghazi Brotha, Chashma etc is 6444 MW, which is 34% of the total power generation, while 44% is being produced from gas, 20% from oil fuel, 2% nuclear and 1% from coal.
There are given 18.50 million consumer connections and an uninterrupted supply of electricity is not a dream. Construction of dams has always been politicised in the country. It is a fact that hydel energy is always the cheapest while water storage is used for agricultural needs.
Now circumstances have led to the point that our foreign exchange reserves will be usurped by producing electricity by thermal means, as the price of oil in the international markets has gone too high. It is not difficult to decide, by the Government, now that there is no other way, but to go for producing electricity from hydel, coal, nuclear and alternative means forthwith, particularly by constructing big dams.
In this context, construction of Bhasha and Kala Bagh Dams should be commenced immediately to produce cheap electricity. In the NWFP, there is the potential of thousands of MW of electricity by the construction of small and medium dams on waterfalls. Similarly, by pulling out silt from the Mangla Dam, not only water storage capacity can be increased, but more electricity will be produced through the installation of further generators under Dam-extension programme.
For the Tarbela Dam, three extension plans have already been completed while World Bank has approved financing for the fourth one, which will produce more electricity by its completion. It is appreciable to note that during Nawaz Sharif Regime, 1450 MW electricity was produced by constructing another dam Ghazi Brotha by making use of water outflow of Tarbela.
It is expected that the under-construction Jinnah Dam and Gomal Zam Dam will be operational in July and October 2010 respectively, which will generate 1700 MW of electricity in addition to irrigating an area of 163,000 acres of South Waziristan, Dera Ismail Khan and Tank.
It is worth noting that Jinnah Dam's first unit will commence 96 MW electricity productions in July 2010, while another three units will be installed later. It is noted that Government has ordered for the construction of Bhasha Dam and the Prime Minister has issued instructions to different departments to start work on it.
By completion of this Dam, 4500 MW electricity will be generated, in addition to water for irrigating agriculture land. This will prove to be a prosperous plan for Gilgit-Baltistan people. There are abundant coal reserves available in Sindh, Balochistan, which are sufficient to meet the country's electricity generation need for the next 400 years.
Coal is the prime source (40%) of electricity generation in the world. In Pakistan, unfortunately, there is little or nil electricity being produced from this source. It goes to the credit of the present regime that has approved electricity generation from Thar Coal and other resources, from where electricity would be produced in the next 3 to 5 years.
Evidently, it will save enough foreign exchange being used for oil imports now. It is worthwhile to note that Iran, being one of the largest oil producers, is using coal to produce electricity and we can use Iranian engineers' expertise for our coal energy projects. It has already offered its technical assistance to Pakistan in that context. China is also producing 75% of its electricity needs from coal. China is ready to help Pakistan on this front.
Pakistan is now the 7th world's Atomic Power and the government should pay full attention by producing electricity from nuclear means. Only 462 MW is being produced from nuclear sources now, which are only 2% of the total installed capacity in the country.
The first Nuclear Atomic Power plant 137 MW KANUPP Karachi Nuclear power plant was commissioned in 1971, while the Chashma Nuclear Power Plant of 325 MW capacity (CHASNUPP) came into production in 1999, with technical assistance of China (China National Nuclear Corporation). It is appreciable to note that the nuclear plants are being operated under the supervision of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), which is an autonomous body and Chashma II with 340 MW capacity is scheduled to be completed by 2011, by the Commission.
The electricity demand can be met easily by setting up of further nuclear power plants in the country. 20% thermal electricity is being produced by oil while 44% is being produced from gas, while total installed thermal capacity is 11723 MW in the country. Out of this, WAPDA produces thermal electricity of 4829 MW, while IPPs produce 6609 MW and total rental power is 285 MW.
Kot Addu Muzaffargarh Thermal Power Generation Co, Guddu Power Generation Co and Jamshoro Power Generation Co are notable power producers in the country. Kot Addu Muzaffargarh Thermal Power Generation Co has installed capacity of 1350 MW, Guddu 1655 MW, Jamshoro 850 MW, Multan 195 MW, Faisalabad 244 MW, Steam power Station Faisalabad 132 MW, Kotri 174 MW, Lakhra 150 MW, Shahdara 44 MW, Quetta 35 MW.
44% thermal electricity is being produced from gas, steam powerhouses, whose production has decreased due to increased demand of gas in winter in the country. Though these are dual-fired, but by conversion on oil, their production is lowered to 25%. In Faisalabad, large industries meet their energy need also from their own captive powerhouses.
For wind energy, the coastal areas of Balochistan are quite useful, where the wind blows throughout the year. Recently, a wind energy plant of 50 MW is being installed in Balochistan. Due to rough and obsolete conditions of transmission lines and faulty equipments, there is frequent tripping with DISCOs.
These trippings, with load fluctuations, affect domestic and industrial equipment, gadgets and installations which become faulty, losing their useful life. Tube lights and electric motors burn down and a lot of expense is incurred for repairing and purchasing new ones. Distribution Companies should upgrade their system and infrastructure with the increased demand of electricity. There is also enough revenue loss to DISCOs owing to electricity theft.
According to an estimate, WAPDA can meet its deficit of 130 billion per annum if it overcomes the theft of electricity and line losses in its distribution system. It is difficult to enhance the performance of these DISCOs without tackling the menace of 'Corruption' and that is possible through 'Good Governance' and making use of 'Best Management Practices'.
Despite the frequent rise of the electricity tariff during the year, the problem of 'Circular Debt' of Rs 417 billion still exists, as previously. One can only conclude that owing to mismanagement, we are back to square one. The situation of Gas Load Management becomes severe in winter, due to increase in demand, and the SNGPL now faces a deficit of 350 MMF in supply.
Since December 08, 2009 this shortfall is being met by two days off in a week. There is a uniform effect on every industrial concern and supply to CNG stations is curtailed for two days in a week. But still there is no fruitful outcome. Furthermore, from December 29, 2009, curtailment of gas schedule is expanded to another one day and the industry will now be closed for gas supply to 3 days a week.
That means to run the industrial wheel, there is no way but to opt for expensive fuel ie, oil to run the industry for these three days. It is learnt that surplus supply is available with the SSGPL system, which can be diverted to the SNGPL through the integrated system that already exists. At least, captive powerhouses can be exempted and be run on this additional supply for these three days avoiding unemployment of thousands of people.
It is further suggested that work on IPI project must be expedited with or without India's participation, negating any American influence. Similarly, electricity contract with Turkmenistan via Afghanistan be considered seriously. There is an urgent need to explore further prospects of oil and gas in the country. Foreign companies and local private sector be invited for investment by way of offering special incentives to save huge foreign exchange being incurred on oil imports.