PPP-PML(N) relations

Despite occasional expressions of goodwill, which are becoming rarer with the passage of time, the PPP and PML(N) remain irreconcilable political opponents. There is, however, a marked difference this time from how they interacted with each other during 1998-1999, when it was a common practice to declare hostilities within months of the assumption of power by any one of the rivals.
Vitreous statements, accusations and calls for the overthrow of the government invariably followed this. Nawaz Sharif's blood pressure went up, or as he graphically put it once, "My blood starts boiling when I hear Benazir's name." He was paid back in the same coin by Benazir.
The opposition took to the streets, issued calls for shutdowns of trading centres and wheel-jam strikes and organised train marches to overthrow the government, which they claimed, had become a security risk for the country. The government, in turn, responded by arrests, suppression of the protests by brutal baton charges and registration of cases against the opposition leaders.
This time, the leaders are careful in their choice of words to convey the deep distrust and antagonism and the gnawing jealousy that still persists among them in no small measure. The government, in turn, is avoiding recourse to the Draconian repressive measures or to the registration of cases, despite a threat of the sort extended by Rehman Malik during the long march.
This has led some to conclude that our political parties have finally realised that political rivalry must not be turned into personal enmity and that political power has to be gained by participation in elections, rather than by fighting a War of the Roses.
What are the factors that have brought about the seachange? Is it a genuine change of heart? Or is it because of the overarching fear of a possible military take-over? Or is it due to pressure, supposedly exerted by friendly countries? Perhaps all the three factors have played a role in reining the political leaders. One would like to believe that they have learnt from their own failures.
But have they? Once, replying to a question whether the world really exits, Einstein told the questioner, "I think that it exists, I hope that it exists, but I do not know if it really exists." One tends to think in similar skeptical terms when answering if our leaders' thinking has undergone a radical change.
How much has the PPP leadership leant from the past? The way the CoD, prepared after weeks and months of brainstorming, remains unimplemented after two years in power would indicate to many that whatever realisation of past mistakes has been acquired is no more than skin-deep. The claim that Nawaz is a better learner will be tested when he is in power, which is the best time to check if a leader is not suffering from amnesia.
As things stand, memories of Musharraf's military rule are still fresh. So are the privations undergone by the leadership of the two parties during the exile imposed on them by Musharraf? As Nawaz put it, not long ago, it is better to spend three years in opposition than to be forced to sit out the military rule, which normally extends to a decade.
The fear of a military take-over is therefore, also one of the factors that lead the parties to display patience, which they were not used to some years back. Friendly countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, US and Britain, who face the threat of terrorism, are naturally worried that any resort to a no-holds-barred type infighting between the two parties could divert the government's attention from the ongoing fight against terrorism, thus jeopardising international security.
This, however, can, at best, be an additional factor rather than a real deterrent. Parties rarely heed outside advice when it does not suit them. Moreover, those applying pressure have little leverage to force either the government or opposition. Those used to the sound and fury of the 1988-99 era are unhappy at the absence of fireworks.
Imran Khan has accused the PML(N) of being no more than a friendly opposition. But neither the PTI, nor the JI are in a position to kick-start an agitatio n. Both are, therefore, criticising the PPP and PML(N) of being collaborators. Occasionally, there is an outburst of rhetoric between the two parties.
There being no dearth of hawks on either side, people like Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, Khwaja Asif and Ahsan Iqbal on PML(N)'s side and Rehman Malik and Fauzia Wahab on the other, press the steam button off and on, raising the political temperature by several degrees. The exercise, presumably undertaken at a wink from their top leadership, is called off when the leadership thinks it is time the hard-liners are brought to heel.
So how are things going to shape up in months to come? Being a traditional rival, the PML(N) will continue to use every chink in Zardari's armour to score points at his expense. This is quite natural in a multi-party democracy. The party misses no opportunity to highlight the corruption cases and what it calls the lack of reliability on the part of the President.
With an eye on future elections, the PML(N) will concentrate on consolidating itself in Punjab and make gains in Sindh, Balochistan and NWFP, where its performance in the last elections was disappointing. In Balochistan, where most constituencies are won on the basis of the tribal chiefs' clout, the party is out enlisting the support of as many sardars as it can.
It will also try to gain the sympathies of the nationalists by demanding Musharraf's trial and more right for smaller provinces. It will also seek allies among the Pushtuns in the province, like the PMAP. In NWFP, while keeping whatever Pushtun leaders are presently in its fold, it will concentrate on non-Pushtun constituencies in the Hazara Division and Dera Ismail Khan, which were the traditional strongholds of what used to be the Qayyum League.
Sindh, the traditional fortress of the PPP is likely to prove the hardest nut to crack. The PML(N) will try to cash in on the fact that once the elections are announced, those not getting the tickets of the strongest party seek the support of the second best.
The PML(N) will, however, stop short of destabilising the system because among other things, it needs time to set its house in order. What is more, as Nawaz recently put it, it is reasonable to sit out three years in opposition rather than go into exile for a decade, which is the normal tenure for military rulers.
The PPP, which inherited a bad economy, power and gas shortages and a rising tide of terrorist attacks, is left with no option but to wait for the turn of the tide. It hopes that a further improvement in the economy, which is finally on track, the influx of massive foreign aid, and the improvement in power supply, expected in days to come, would provide relief to the people and improve the party's public rating.
Meanwhile, it has no other option in Punjab other than seeking the support of the Q-League, where Pervez Elahi has opened a barrage of criticism against the ruling PML(N) and is daring it to hold the local bodies elections.
The opponent's opponent is bound to be considered a friend. Meanwhile, even if by any chance Zardari were no more the president, the PPP government would remain the PML(N)'s target. It would then, question the performance of Gilani in the economy, the resolution of the issue of Balochistan or whatever other issue comes handy. With the battle lines drawn, the competition is bound to get nasty as the elections approach.