From IPI to IP

Although India had not openly said so, but it has been obvious for a while that it was not interested anymore in the Iran gas pipeline project. Hence Pakistan decided to go ahead with the project, signing Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement for the construction of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.
While a Pakistani team is in Tehran finalising the details of the agreement, India has come in again to say it wants to be included in it. Iran reportedly told the Pakistani team that India wants to be given the necessary security guarantees as well as to sort out the transit fee issue. Too late, responded Pakistan.
India has missed the bus. Petroleum and Natural Resources Minister Naveed Qamar explained to a local newspaper that Pakistan wanted the execution of the Iran-Pakistan (IP), not the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project. Inclusion of India in the project and giving it guarantees at this point in time, when both Iran and Pakistan are at an advanced stage to seal the deal, seems neither practical nor sane, he said, because it would delay the project.
He left the door open though, for India to join in at a later stage. Pakistan is rightly concerned that the project might fall prey to international politics. It is no secret that the US has been pressuring both, Pakistan and India, to abandon the gas pipeline. Creditably for Islamabad, it has withstood the pressure despite US promises that it would help it bring in electricity from Turkmenistan, providing assistance also for the development of coal-fired power plants.
According to a report, during a recent meeting with the Petroleum Minister, US special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke offered to make LNG available in large quantities, which was welcomed. Apparently, the offer was meant to keep Pakistan from going ahead with the gas purchase from Iran.
Considering that negotiations have been under way in Tehran to give final form to the pipeline project, Pakistan has wisely decided to avail both Iranian gas and LNG from other sources. This way the country can ensure its longer-term energy security without making itself dependent on the goodwill of the US alone.
Islamabad is rightly apprehensive of India's intentions. Notably, originally India had initiated the idea of importing gas from Iran to meet its growing energy demand. Unaccustomed to long-term planning, Islamabad was more enthused by the prospect of picking up an attractive transit fee than using the gas.
The plan was to take out only a small amount of gas near Multan. Meantime, hostilities between the US and Iran sharpened, and the former started pressuring Pakistan and India to withdraw from the project, citing a domestic law that prohibits its companies from doing business with Iran-related companies and countries.
India was also offered a civilian nuclear programme to help it cope with its energy requirements. But the country's the then Petroleum Minister Manishanker Ayer still insisted on buying Iranian gas, which is believed to be the reason he was suddenly replaced by a pro-American, industrialist-turned politician, Murli Deora. From then on, New Delhi's interest in the project began to wane.
Given the background, it is quite possible that its new expression of interest may not be reflective of a genuine intention to revive the IPI. A further complicating factor is India's reluctance to resume the stalled Pak-India Composite Dialogue process. Pakistan, therefore, should keep the pipeline restricted to IP at this point. If and when the dialogue makes progress, it may be extended to IP becoming IPI.