Two powerful finance ministers Pakistan has seen in a decade of continues democratic set up are Shaukat Tarin and Ishaq Dar. Both having contrasting personalities, have some common traits- grit and ability to get things done. The latter is a master of accounting treatment knowing the art of maneuvering numbers, while the former is a seasoned banker with great skills of negotiations.
Lately, Dar has been under serious threat as not only the NAB is zeroing on him but he is fast loosing the trust of ousted premier. The noise is that Dar had tried to cut a deal for himself on Panama case and that was not very well received by his the ousted PM. Dar has a history of seeking his personal interest first as during the time of Musharaaf, he attempted to save himself at the cost of others in Hudabia case.
He still holds the position of FM but is no more the head of ECC and is no more heading thirty odd committees. He has been sidelined but refuses to resign. That said, his days seem numbered. Who would replace him?
Earlier the name of Miftah Ismail was making rounds (read ‘On Miftah replacing Dar’ published on 20th Sep 2017); but nothing came out of it. Interestingly, Shaukat Tarin is in news for the role. He held the portfolio in the PPP tenure for 17 months before quitting to concentrate on his own bank. Apparently, Nawaz wanted Tarin to be an advisor to him on finance, but Dar had other ideas.
And now probably again, PMLN leadership approached Tarin and he is understood to have refused to work in Dar’s presence. The question is who is better for the country. BR Research opines that Tarin is undoubtedly a better alternative.
When Tarin joined it was a difficult period; the country was facing a balance of payment crisis. The previous regime under Shaukat Aziz, allowed the current account and fiscal deficits slip in a futile attempt to win elections. The problem was exacerbated by Dar who was the finance minster briefly and had bashed the economic management of Musharraf regime, when he announced the FY09 budget.
Tarin took over in a difficult time and anchored the economy out of the woods under IMF programme. His main achievement was the 7th NFC award. He was the architect of it and played the role of a tough negotiator by bringing four provinces and a weak federal government on an agreement which seemed to be an impossible task.
On the contrast, Dar came into power with a strong PMLN mandate with weak opposition. There was a tough time in his first year of term and lady luck turned in his favour. He had strong political backing and was the de-facto Prime Minister. But these were not enough for him to initiate much needed reforms and he just took an opportunity to improve the numbers in the short run at the cost of long term sustainability.
No one dared to speak against him when he was in full swing and Nawaz trusted him blindly. But now with Dar loosing Nawaz’s trust, he is being lobbied against. Recent example is of Governor Sindh bashing Dar. He alleged that Dar misled Nawaz on economic progression by showing a rosier picture. The problem with Dar was that he was too focused on building debt based reserves and fiscal revenues at the cost of dwindling exports with no focus on privatization, whatsoever.
The country needs someone to be innovative and take bold decisions and not let the economy slip into another balance of payment crisis. The country needs a FM who respects the independence of institutions like SBP, SECP and CCP. And, the country needs someone who could bring provinces and centre on one page to lower the fiscal deficit.
Tarin was the architect of 7th NFC award and it is now time to do the second round with federating units to have more share of responsibilities. Tarin, the negotiator would not make a bad choice. Tarin may have made mistakes but atleast they were honest mistakes and he accepts them. Dar does not.
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