Drought threatens agro-based economy

The current hydrological drought, leading to agricultural drought is alarming for crops failure as canal water and rains are major source of irrigation for agriculture in Pakistan. A yield loss of 0.4 to 0.5 million tons for wheat crop has been estimated in Barani areas this year. This situation is threatening growth and development of our agro-based economy.
The water availability situation is much worst this year and warrants drastic/extensive water management measures to avoid crisis as official sources are declaring water shortage to the extent of 40% this year. According to Dr Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Director General of Pakistan Meteorological Department, most parts of the country are experiencing extremely dry conditions mainly due to the prevailing El-Nino condition in the "Pacific Ocean".
The El-Nino conditions, which developed in June last year and reduced Pakistan monsoon rainfall by about 30%, were likely to continue till next summer. Dr Chaudhry said that meteorological drought occurred when rainfall was recorded 40% less than the expected in any area for an extended period - a stage already surpassed.
The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has sought details of an advisory of the meteorological development forecasting emerging agricultural drought conditions over the next six months with water storage having declined by 34% over the past years and with river flows down by 21%.
The Irsa bring into light that water flows in the country's four major rivers had declined by about 10,000 cusecs to 37,000 cusecs, compared with 47,000 cusecs last year. Total storage in two major reservoirs, Tarbela and Mangla, stood at about 1.5 million acre feet (MAF) on January 23rd, compared with 2.26 MAF last year, down by about 34%.
Although a contingent plan for irrigation of standing wheat crop has been developed by Agriculture and Irrigation Department, Punjab, and it has been planned to make available canal water for two irrigations to the wheat crop before 10th of March, but if hydrological drought continued, the crop would be further endangered. In Barani areas, wheat acreage was already down by 19% (or 500,000 acres) this season. Out of sown 1.3 million acres, around 400,000 acres already stand severely damaged.
It is estimated that one-fifth of the total cultivation land of Pakistan (4.9 million hectares) is drought prone: Pakistan is facing severe shortage of good quality water and this problem is mounting with time. Insufficient rainfall and lack of canal water are the two major constraints in getting potential yield of crops.
In this scenario, there is a great need to focus attention on developing drought tolerant crops that can grow with limited water. According to the sources Punjab Agricultural Research Board has approved a research project under competitive grant system to improve wheat crop for drought tolerance through biotechnology for which around Rs 10.3 million has been provided.
A combination of factors - severe water stress and lack of quality seed may create a big hole in cane production, next year. The crop has tumbled over the last two years with a drop of 30% in 2007-08. Another six percent is gone this year. The cane prices are up by 100 to 150% this year. If water stress persists, it would keep the sugar market even more unstable next year.
Along with building new water resources, which should be the most essential part of the new agriculture strategy, the country must develop new range of seeds by evolving new varieties of different crops resistant to water shortage, temperature and salts. India is stealing 15-20% of water from western rivers, causing Rs 12 billion loss to the agriculture of Pakistan.
This was revealed in a report of engineers study forum, a water expert's panel on rivers of India and Pakistan, said a spokesman of the forum. This is a blatant violation of the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 and United Nations Conventions. India is blocking water from the Chanab and Jhelum rivers by constructing dams like Baglihar, Kishan Ganga, Wuller Barrage, Pakal Dul and taking other diversion measures.
The forum has urged Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani to lodge a claim with the United Nations, World Bank and International Court of Justice of billions of dollars in terms of loss caused to Pakistan's agriculture per year. Farmers' organisations have also urged the government to approach the World Bank for nomination of a neutral expert for taking notice of stealing of Pakistani rivers' water by India in violation of Indus Water Treaty.
India had started construction of 1,030 MW Basrur Muli Power Project, 1200 MW Sialkot dam and 100 MW Pakot Dul dam on Chanab after completion of Baglihar hydropower project. It had not provided any technical information about the new dams to Pakistan as required under the Indus Water Treaty, they deplored.
These dams would be built by cutting thousands of acres of forests in occupied Kashmir, which would affect rainfall in Pakistan. India was not only building projects on Chanab but was also building 240 MW Uri power project and 330 MW Kishan Ganga power project on river Jhelum. There is a need of effective planning and implementation of projects, long-term as well as short-term to address the issues of drought and water scarcity to save agriculture and economy of this country.