Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, the Shia who helped ease Iraq's sectarian strife, emerged Monday as a front-runner in a parliamentary election but could yet face a tough battle to cling to power. Maliki polled well according to early forecasts from Iraq's second election since the 2003 ouster of Saddam Hussein, which saw millions shake off the fear of bomb, mortar and rocket attacks that killed 38 people to cast ballots.
President Barack Obama, who has promised to withdraw all US troops from Iraq by the end of next year, paid tribute to "the courage and resilience of the Iraqi people who once again defied threats to advance their democracy." The key estimates from the Baghdad region, which could swing the result of the vote, were not yet available Monday but local officials said Maliki's political bloc was so far leading the count in nine of Iraq's 18 provinces.
Maliki's State of Law Alliance was ahead in Shia regions, while Iyad Allawi, a former premier who heads the Iraqiya list, was leading in Sunni areas, said estimates AFP obtained from officials across the country. Official final results are not due until the end of March and it is then likely to take months of horsetrading before a new government is formed.
But early indications were positive for Maliki. A source close to the prime minister said it now looked like his list was going to get 100 seats in the 325-seat parliament. Maliki was appointed prime minister in 2005 as a compromise candidate and his administration, with considerable help from the US military, sharply reduced the Sunni-Shia sectarian strife that killed tens of thousands in the wake of the 2003 US-led invasion that ousted Saddam. He played down his party's Shia religious roots in his campaign for this election and sought to portray himself as the leader who restored security to Iraq, a claim dented by a series of recent bombings.
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