With the close of this February month, winter season has ended and start of this March month has herald on setting of summer season. Although, cotton sowing had reportedly taken start in some patches areas of Lower Sindh but it has accelerated its speed with rise of temperature in this month as some around 35 degrees Centigrade temperature is required at the sowing time. On 14th instant, temperature in Hyderabad and other areas of lower Sindh had touched the level of 40 degrees centigrade. These days, the weather appears to be conducive to cotton sowing but fear of shortage of irrigation water during crop development is a matter of great concern for the growers. Last water for wheat crop is being used for cotton otherwise the water in dams has either reached dead level or is close to it.
As per practice, Sindh should first take up cotton sowing followed by Punjab as cotton sowing in Sindh and Punjab simultaneously would create great problem of water shortage. Punjab should start cotton sowing from end / middle of May month when water level in dams would increase due to snow-melting on mountains and in July and August months, irrigation water availability would increase due to on setting of rainy season.
As all seasons move from South to North ie crop sowing starts in Sindh first and after about two months in Punjab so Punjab should divert irrigation water of its share to Sindh and thereafter Sindh should divert irrigation water of its share to Punjab to beat the irrigation water shortage in both the provinces. As the water shortage problem would intensify in comings years so Pakistan should work out a plan of using latest irrigation water technologies such as water springing and water dripping technologies to reduce per acre water consumption. The agriculture scientists should evolve new crop patterns and seed varieties requiring lesser water.
Pakistan's Irrigation system is based on a system, which can beat the excessive irrigation water. Now, the situation is altogether changed and in this century, the world would face shortage of water as global warming would reduce deposit of snow on mountains and slowly and gradually melt down large glaciers providing water for irrigation and drinking to the world.
Every country is trying to take a lead in securing irrigation water requirements to its future needs. Those countries, which think and act ahead of time would win while those lacking behind will suffer. Some think ahead of time, some in time while others think after the time and we belong to the last category. It is hard luck that water, which covers 71 percent of earth area, being free God gifted, has become scare. This is due to unnatural blocking and diverting natural water resources otherwise there would have not been any water shortage anywhere. Of the total water consumption, 2/3rd is used for irrigation purpose and one third for industrial, commercial and domestic use - less than 5 percent for domestic use. Not only water volume is decreasing but the quality of water is deteriorating endangering human and animal lives.
In the last 75 years, human population has increased by 300 percent while water requirements have surged by 600 percent. In our region, water would be a great problem in coming years - becoming so severe that countries may fight wars in future.
This season, we have harvested a medium size crop of 12.7 million local weight bales (roughly average weight of 160 Kgs per bale) and our production target for next cotton crop should be between 14.5 and 15.0 million bales on the basis of more than 12 percent increase in cotton area to 3.5 million hectares with average lint cotton yield of Kgs 660 per hectare. There may be host of problems like water shortage, excessive rains, fertiliser shortage, inclement weather, pest / disease attack on crop and other unseen problems in the way of achieving the production target.
All these problems are neither new nor without any solution but one should have vision and will to tackle all the problems. Previously in many seasons, when Pakistan produced record high cotton crops, it was always higher than production targets- 14.3 million bales in 2004-2005, 12.8 million bales in 1991-92 and 4.2 million bales in 1971-72. It may not be strange if in the next season we improve our ever-high cotton production target of 14.3 million bales which was achieved in 2004-2005. Our efforts are always there but sometime God becomes more merciful.
The government is understood to have developed some varieties of Bt cotton seed which would be distributed among cotton growers for sowing in 2010-2011 season. The benefits of sowing Bt cotton are well-documented on national and international levels and the sooner we adopt this new technology the better it is for our cotton economy.
Our local lint market lost about Rs300 per maund to come down to Rs5,550 per maund of 37.324 Kg ex-gin partly in sympathy with New York Cotton Futures / international prices and partly on domestic factors such as capping of yarn export to 35,000 m/tons per month, weak domestic and foreign yarn prices, poor domestic law and order situation, power crisis, increased cost of gas and power, high financial expenses including high interest rate, unstable political conditions and poor economic performance. The unsold stock of lint cotton is reported around 300,000 bales, which is very low. Some spinning mills have sold lint cotton to spinning mills which gives them very good profits perhaps beyond yarn profits.
By the middle of this month, our cotton imports are now close to 1.0 million 170-Kgs bales and by the end of this cotton season in August, 10, out total cotton imports may touch the level of 2.5 million 170-Kg bales. The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma) are demanding of the government to withdraw the yarn export capping order and are threatening the government to take necessary other measure to protect the interests of the local spinning industry. The Aptma has announced to stage protest / strike on 18th instant in support of their demand. Their main demand is to withdraw capping of 35,000 m/tons on yarn exports immediately to provide level field playing to all their 350 spinning mills employing some 1.0 million workers.
On the other hand cloth, towel and apparel manufacturers want such restrictions on yarn exports to stay at least till June month, claiming to be a value-added sector earning more foreign exchange and employing more workers. Let us see whether the Aptma goes on strike by closing down the spinning operations of their 350 spinning units or not. Although, there are remote chances of such strike but if it is materialised, the lint cotton prices may go down further and yarn may prices go up.
The federal ministry of textile should start negotiations with the Aptma people for meeting their genuine demands and simultaneously persuading them not to go on strike.
Comments
Comments are closed.