Of conspiracy theories

This week past brought a major surprise that resulted in a decided shift of media and public attention away from Washington DC where the focus was clearly more on protocol than on substance and back to our murky internal politics.
At a press conference held at the Punjab House in Islamabad on Thursday Nawaz Sharif did what is being termed a volte-face: he challenged the widely held belief that PML (N) had agreed to the draft of the proposed constitutional amendment with respect to the mechanism for the appointment of judges during the nine-month-long deliberations of the Parliamentary Committee on Constitutional Reforms. The belief that the draft was a consensus document till this Wednesday past was supported by views expressed by senior PML (N) members a day earlier who had admitted that only one issue remained to be resolved with the ANP: the renaming of North West Frontier Province (NWFP) - an issue that both parties claimed was pending but quite resolvable. Subsequently some senior ANP representatives claimed that the renaming of the province was not the stumbling block as its leadership had agreed to an adjustment of the name through an additional word that would take note of the non-Pukhtoon residents in the province.
There is intense speculation on what happened between noon and 4:00 pm on Thursday that led Nawaz Sharif to express his reservations after prior agreement with Prime Minister Gilani on the timing of the (i) signing ceremony on the draft package, (ii) the presentation of the package to parliament and the (iii) presidential address to a joint sitting of Parliament. All three were hastily cancelled subsequent to the press conference. Was it merely a show of PML (N) strength in the political arena with respect to the PPP as some critics are alleging? This view is again supported by many a PML (N) leader publicly expressing the view that this is a temporary setback, of days and not even weeks, and would be resolved through dialogue. Be that as it may, it is valid to note that PML (N) strength has not been in question in recent months and neither is PPP's weakness thus if this was indeed Nawaz Shairf's motive than it certainly did not merit restating.
Was the reason serious establishment concern over the agreed mechanism of judicial appointments designed to forestall any future military adventurer? The question arises as to why he would go along with the establishment on this point until and unless he has been assured the chance to govern soon. Those who argue that he has been assured the chance to govern in 2013 need reminding that the chances of a PML (N) victory at the polls are rather high given the performance of the PPP government in any case, a fact that the PML(N) chief seems very aware of, and that the days of blatant manipulation of polls are over in any case.
Be that as it may, it is also rather difficult to understand why the establishment would want a weak president and/or prime minister replaced by a party leadership which is unlikely to be quite as weak. As is clearly evident from what is going on in Washington DC our establishment is clearly in the driving seat, and a reflection of that is the government's meek acceptance of playing second if not third fiddle to the Chief of Army Staff during the ongoing strategic dialogue in DC by being content with protocol. This lesson, all are agreed, was learned after the corps commanders issued their serious reservations to the media on some of the clauses of the Kerry-Lugar bill.
Was this U-turn a way for Nawaz Sharif to express solidarity with some members of the legal fraternity - those who have publicly voiced their opposition to the amendments as recorded in the draft and maybe those who have been more reticent in public at least? Allegations that the fraternity may have dangled the prospect of reopening of cases against the Sharif family as the stick that led to a U-turn is, again, not quite a convincing rationale. PPP leadership has been fairly easy to manipulate because of its weakness even though all hundred and eighty degree reversal of its decisions have been made after the eleventh hour. Thus while it is true that flexing of muscles by the PPP co-chairman against the PML (N) leadership is routine yet it has not only been quite successfully resisted by the PML (N) leadership to date but has also strengthened the party's popularity as an outcome.
A school of thought argues that Nawaz's U-turn is premised on the fact that the PML (N) did not want credit for the amendment package to go to the PPP. This too does not appear to be credible. The draft document prepared by the constitutional committee is a consensus document and each political party, national, regional or local, has had an input, barring those who boycotted the February 18, 2008 polls and have no representation in the house and therefore can legitimately claim credit.
Another conspiracy theory is as follows: the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) is no more and an ordinance in this regard cannot be passed by the President as long as the national assembly is in session. Nawaz Sharif did mention in his press conference that the NA can continue. Now, so argue these theorists, link sugar mill owners' interests in not having a CCP for the months of March and April and one may find the true reason behind the U-turn. This too does not appear very credible for the simple reason that none of the major political parties, including PML (N), PPP and PML (Q) have shown any interest in empowering the CCP. This is patently evident in statements made by these three parties' representatives in the National Assembly.
Was it simply a matter of Nawaz Sharif feeling irked as his party or parliament was not taken on board with respect to the ongoing strategic dialogue in Washington DC? Or did Nawaz Sharif regard this as an opportunity too good to miss wherein for the first time his party showed its mettle to President Zardari instead of reacting? There is little doubt that without the 18th constitutional amendment tabled in the assembly with the concurrence of all parties especially a major one like PML (N) the President's speech, had it been delivered as per previous announcement, would have had to be rewritten. Be that as it may, if this was indeed Nawaz Sharif's motive then it brings to mind the era of the 1990s when such actions were almost the norm between the two major parties.
By the weekend it was clarified by senior PML (N) leadership that the issue was indeed that of the renaming of NWFP and that it was resolvable. However the parliamentary committee which met on Friday to extract the spanner thrown in its works by the PML (N) leader agreed to defer the next meeting till Wednesday while all others including the Prime Minister offered their services, if required, to assist in resolving the issue. Nawaz Sharif held another press conference on Saturday and did not shy away from stating that he considered the renaming of NWFP as a resolvable issue but added that he proposed that the selection of the retired judge (proposed and agreed as a member of the seven-member Judicial Commission by the constitutional committee) should be the Chief Justice's prerogative.
However, in spite of these press conferences whereby the issues were acknowledged and their resolvability considered imminent the conspiracy theories refuse to die down. Such theories are a source of renewed political instability that may not be affecting the outcome of the US-Pakistan strategic dialogue but is impacting on the country's markets and its already poor rating in terms of a foreign investment destination. One would urge all political parties, but particularly the PML (N), to negotiate as soon as possible to allow the conspiracy theories to die a natural death.