Any Chinese import restrictions on Argentine soyaoil are likely to be temporary because of a lack of alternative supplies, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday. Chinese traders said on Mar. 31 that the Chinese government had asked them not to buy Argentine soyaoil as part of a wider trade dispute.
Chinese importers were estimated to have bought at least 600,000 tonnes of soyaoil for May/July shipment, largely from Argentina, Oil World said. Some Argentine purchases would have to be cancelled if the Chinese government is serious about import restrictions, weakening Argentine soyaoil prices, it said. "However, a closer analysis reveals that there is a lack of alternatives, as Argentina is likely to account for 52 percent of world soyaoil exports in April/September 2010," it said.
"We therefore expect that the restrictions on Argentine soyaoil impports will be only temporary. But if import restrictions are imposed, China will have to replace soyaoil with higher imports of palm oil from Malaysia or Indonesia and of canola (rapeseed) or canola oil from Canada, it said.
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