Greek crisis not seen further delaying euro entry bids

Plans to adopt the euro by the newest EU members have not been further delayed by the Greek debt crisis' escalation of the last three months, according to a quarterly Reuters poll of economists. February's survey showed the Greek debt crisis had undermined faith in the eurozone's further enlargement, likely pushing back euro adoption for the biggest European economies by at least a year.
While the median forecasts in Thursday's Reuters poll of 40 economists have changed little since then, despite a worsening of Athens' woes, there was a greater willingness among respondents to kick eurozone enlargement into the long grass - Estonia aside.
Poland, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary are still seen adopting euro in 2015 but forecasters scaled back their median forecast for the Czech Republic's euro accession by a year to 2016.
But eight analysts out of 38 in the latest poll said they saw at least one country from Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania and the Czech Republic adopting the euro as late as 2018 onwards, compared to four out of 49 in February.
"Ultimately, the case for rapid accession to the euro by any country has been weakened by recent events in Greece, and the appetite for enlargement amongst the eurozone's existing members is also likely to wane," said Neil Shearing of Capital Economics in London.
As well as having to overcome a vast budget deficit, a lack of political will was cited by respondents as a barrier to euro adoption to a far greater extent than any other country.
Last week Czech President Vaclav Klaus was quoted as saying that the euro itself was the cause of Greece's debt crisis, not Athens' economic policy. Economists also pushed Latvia's expected euro adoption back by a year to 2015. Only five economists out of 27 expected the European Commission to reject Estonia's euro membership application on Wednesday when it reveals its view of its readiness to join.
Far from allowing another economic Pandora's Box into the 16-nation bloc, some respondents said Estonia's acceptance would be an opportunity for the European Union to show the Greek crisis had not spoiled its single currency project.
Controlling inflation, which derailed Lithuania's euro bid in 2007 but is now seen as less of a problem among most Eastern European economies, could yet prove troublesome in Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania, the poll showed. With the exception of Croatia in 2012, further expansion of the 27-nation European Union looks unlikely in the next five years.