Cocoa output in top grower Ivory Coast should inch up to 1.3 million tonnes in 2010/11 and return to a more distinct growth trend in around four years, the International Cocoa Organisation (ICO) predicted on Friday. Aging trees and investment-sapping political instability in the West African state pinned production to a five-year low of 1.22 million tonnes last year, and the sector is seen doing little better this year despite farmer efforts to raise output.
"We think that in about four years the growth (of cocoa production) will come back to Ivory Coast," ICO executive director Jan Vingerhoets told a news conference in the Ivorian commercial centre Abidjan. ICCO director of statistics Jean-Marc Anga, due shortly to take over from Vingerhoets as acting head of the body, told the news conference he saw output at 1.3 million tonnes in the 2010/11 season.
Ivorian Coffee and Cocoa Bourse (BCC) data obtained by Reuters on Friday earlier showed cocoa arrivals at ports in the country reached 1,068,558 tonnes by July 11 since the start of the season in October, slightly down on the 1,075,687 tonnes in the same period a year ago.
Substantial rains over the last months have fattened pods and allowed volumes to close in on last season's, although increasingly farmers are concerned that humidity will lead to a rise in pod disease if the sun does not emerge soon.
A political stand-off has delayed a presidential election in Ivory Coast for five years and meant that urgently needed sectoral reforms have gone lacking. Farmer groups are trying to fight back with measures such as a training programme to help planters fight pod disease and raise quality.
Vingerhoets also said he expected global production to rise by nearly 6 percent in the 2010/11 season because prices were attractive enough for cocoa farmers to produce more. He expected cocoa prices to remain around $3,000 during that season.
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