SBP Monetary Policy: power shortage, bad law & order diminish private sector credit

Failure to address electricity shortages and dismal law and order is dampening private sector credit and long-term investment projects, the State Bank said in its Monetary Policy statement. According to MPS, the outlook and sustainability of private sector credit during current fiscal year seem uncertain.
The main reason for this assessment are the continued risk averse behaviour of banks, large outstanding stocks of credit for commodity financing and Public Sector Entities, and government's increased reliance on scheduled banks for budgetary support.
Credit to private sector during FY10 was also on lower side and banks disbursed Rs 112.9 billion, lower than what was anticipated earlier given the decline in interest rates and recovery in economic growth. Continued contraction in consumer financing further explains the lower credit utilisation by private sector during FY10.
In addition, relatively lower credit demand for fixed investment is because no major long-term projects have been initiated in FY10, the central bank said. The fixed investment credit of Rs 68.3 billion is largely due to projects contracted in the past in the fertiliser and power sectors.
"Failure to address the electricity shortages and dismal law and order conditions continue to have a dampening effect on the prospects of long term investment projects and higher growth in private sector credit," SBP said and added that lower fixed investment does not augur well for the economy since investment today means ability to produce tomorrow. According to MPS rising stock of Non-performing Loans (NPLs) is one of the key reasons for banks' risk averse behaviour and their reluctance in extending credit to the private sector.
By the end of March 2010, the stock of NPLs had risen to Rs 457 billion, with an incremental increase of Rs 25 billion in Q3-FY10. This shows growth of 5.8 percent over second quarter of FY10, which is higher by 1.3 percentage points than the average growth of 4.5 percent during previous three quarters. Similarly, the NPLs to loan ratio has increased to 13.1 percent in March 2010 from 11.5 percent in June 2009.