The death toll rose to 974 on Thursday morning due to countrywide flood triggered by monsoon rains leaving 1,073 injured. The death toll stood at 946 and 607 people sustained injuries till Wednesday morning. As on August 5, morning, according to official figures released by Ministry of Water and Power the number of affected families rose to 2.1 million against 1.109 million.
The flood report revealed that 2,137 villages destroyed and 10,048 cattle heads were perished. About 1,379,530 acres cropped area has been affected. According to a statement, River Indus is flowing in Very High Flood in Taunsa-Guddu reach and is in High Flood with falling trend at Chashma. It is also in Medium Flood with falling trend at Kalabagh and in Low Flood with rising trend at Tarbela & Sukkur.
River Chenab is in Medium Flood with rising trend at Trimmu, whereas River Jhelum is experiencing Low Flood with falling trend at Mangla. River Kabul is also in High Flood with falling trend at Nowshera and in Medium Flood with rising trend at Warsak. Actual river flows and reservoir elevations indicate that Tarbela and Mangla Dams are at elevations of 1529.42 feet and 1206.00 feet, respectively, which are 20.58 feet and 4.00 feet below their respective Maximum Conservation Levels of 1550.00 feet and 1210.00 feet.
The concerned quarters have already been advised to take utmost care and vigilance in further filling of both the reservoirs and strictly follow filling criteria and safety guidelines. On Thursday combined live storage position of Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma is 10.458 MAF as compared to the last year's 10.248 MAF.
According to Flood Forecasting Division (FFD), Lahore, Seasonal Low continues to prevail over northern Balochistan and adjoining areas. Yesterday's Low over western Rajasthan (India) and adjoining areas still persists with weak intensity. South-eastern monsoon current is penetrating into sub-mountainous areas of Punjab and Kashmir up to 5000 feet.
A fresh well marked monsoon Low has developed over north-western Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of Orissa Coast (India). The weather system is being closely monitored by the Pakistan Meteorological Department for its further movement and intensity.
As predicted by FFD, Lahore, scattered thunderstorm/rain is expected over Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, north-eastern Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir besides upper catchments of Rivers Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi & Sutlej including Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Gujranwala, Lahore and Bahawalpur Divisions during the next 24 hours.
Significant rainfall events reported during the past 24 hours include; Larkana = 131 mm, Khanpur = 121 mm, Parachinar and D. G. Khan = 65 mm each, Rahim Yar Khan = 57 mm, Toba Tek Singh = 50 mm, Jacobabad and D. I. Khan = 39 mm, Bahawalpur (City =32 mm & Airport = 16 mm), Kotli and Bahawalnagar = 18 mm each, Rohri and Skardu = 14 mm each, Shorkot = 13 mm, Bhakkar = 12 mm, Sibi and Sukkur = 11 mm each, Moin-Jo-Daro and Dratian = 10 mm each and Islamabad (Saidpur) = 08 mm.
River Indus at Guddu is likely to attain Exceptionally High Flood Levels of 900,000 to 1,000,000 cusecs during the next 24 hours. Under this scenario, the inundation and flooding in low-lying areas of districts Ghotki and Sukkur is expected. River Indus at Sukkur is likely to attain High Flood Level ranging 500,000 to 600,000 cusecs during the next 24 hours and Exceptionally High Flood Level ranging 850,000 to 950,000 cusecs on August 7, 2010.
Due to which, inundation and flooding of low-lying areas of districts Sukkur, Larkana, Nawabshah, Hyderabad and Nausheroferoze is expected. The flood peak of 600,000 to 700,000 (Exceptionally High Flood Level) is likely to pass through Kotri sometime on 10/11th August, 2010.
As reported by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), moderate to heavy flooding is likely in Hill Torrents of D G Khan and Rajanpur districts due to heavy rains in Suleman range during the period 0500 hrs of 05-08-2010 to 1700 hrs of 05-08-2010. The expected heavy rains over eastern parts of Balochistan may also cause flash floods in rivers and local nullahs.
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