'A third watch' of monsoon rainfall, floods across country likely in September

Meteorology Department of Pakistan has issued 'a third watch' of monsoon rainfall and floods across the country in September as there is possibility of high flood due to heavy rainfall on easterly system.
All the dams and reservoirs of Pakistan and India are full and in case of heavy rainfall whole country will face the third spell of heavy flash floods as there are chances that India will also release water from its dams, said Qamar Zaman Chaudhry, Director General Meteorology Department of Pakistan on Wednesday night, during his exclusive chat with Business Recorder.
He said that the Meteorological Department after reviewing the monsoon had announced 10 percent plus rainfall in the country in July, which had nothing to do with floods. In August the rainfall is expected 20 per cent plus, he added.
The second flood at present is at Taunsa and discharges about 800,000 cusecs and at Punjnad, high flood River Chenab will fall in it and it will reach one million cusecs. After causing destruction in South Punjab it will go towards Sukkur and heavy destruction is also expected in low lying areas of Districts Khairpur, Jacobababad, Ghotki and Sukkur.
He said that according to latest hydrological conditions, River Indus at Chashma is likely to continue in a Very High to Exceptionally High flood level ranging between 780,000 cusecs to 820,000 cusecs during the night between August 11 and 12.
He said that all the concerned authorities have been requested to take necessary precautionary measures to avoid/minimise loss of lives and infrastructure etc. He said that the River Indus at Guddu is likely to attain Exceptionally High Flood level ranging between 900,000 to 10,00,000 cusecs due to second wave of flash flood between the night of August 13 to 14, which may cause heavy destruction in Southern Punjab.
He said that according to latest Hydrological conditions River Indus at Sukkur is likely to attain Exceptionally High Flood level ranging between 9,00,000 cusecs to 10,00,000 cusecs on 14-08-2010 (evening) to 15-08-2010. Under this scenario, the riverine flooding of low-lying areas of Districts Sukkur, Larkana, Nawabshah, Hyderabad, Naushehroferoze is expected.
Responding to a question regarding the flawed warning system, Director General Met said that his department had issued the warning in June regarding the heavy monsoon and flash floods.
In spite of warning the Met department issued an advisory on July 24 regarding floods and on July 25, the advisory regarding the flash flood in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was issued, Qamar Zaman said, adding that from July 26 daily warning was issued while rainfall started from the night of July 28.
"We had indicated about the phenomenon emerged during the preparatory conferences in June", he said, adding that Met office issued warning which reads with the "Interaction of westerly and easterly system very heavy rainfall will occur over Northern Pakhtunkhwa that may cause flash floods from July to September".
To a question regarding the people caught in surprise, DG Met said that the warning was already given but the rainfall was outside the monsoon region of the country, which caught people in surprise. He said that people of these areas had no experience of such type of floods. He said that these areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa had no effect of global warming and this was reason of more disaster in these areas.
"We have informed the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and Federal Flood Commission (FFC) accordingly about the gravity of situation due to monsoon rainfall", he said, adding that then Met office put the warnings on its website and encouraged media to disseminate it to public. According to a Met outlook, westerly wave moving across northern areas and monsoon currents of weak to moderate intensity is still penetrating over upper parts of the country.
More rain and thundershowers is expected at scattered places over upper Punjab, including Islamabad during 12th to 14th August 2010, while more rain/thundershowers is expected at scattered over Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during 12th to 14th August 2010. Sindh, will see hot and humid weather in most parts of the province during next few days, while Balochistan will see mainly dry weather in most parts of the province.