Eurozone interest rate futures rose on Monday with some contracts hitting record highs as the market pared monetary policy tightening expectations in 2011 on mounting concerns about the health of the global economy. Data on Monday revealed Japan's economy slowed to a crawl in the second quarter, days after the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England both downgraded the outlooks for their respective economies.
Euro Libor steady, dollar Libor lowest in three months While the eurozone appeared to be faring relatively well thanks to Germany's stellar growth in the second quarter, fears about the outlook have already gripped markets. The most actively traded December 2011 Euribor futures contract hit a record high of 98.840 to price an implied rate of 1.16 percent, down sharply from a high of 1.61 percent on July 27.
This roughly means the market now expects the three-month Euribor interbank rate to average at just 1.16 percent by the end of next year. The three-month Euribor was fixed at 0.896 percent on Monday, down from 0.898 percent on Friday and a peak of 0.905 percent on August 6. Similarly, the equivalent euro London interbank offered rate seemed to have peaked at 0.835 percent on August 11.
"What is happening at the moment is a reduction in interest rate expectations for next year, that's what's driving Euribor mainly," said Alessandro Tentori, strategist at BNP Paribas. Dollar funding rates extended a month-long decline with the three-month dollar Libor reaching a low not seen since early May at 0.36188 percent.
As part of its plan announced last week to reinvigorate the economic recovery, the Federal Reserve will buy $18 billion of government debt to mid-September. The first purchase operation on Tuesday will target issues maturing from August 2014 to July 2016.
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