Need for more power!

The present energy crisis started with power generation experiencing difficulties in meeting the demand of the country in early 2004. The gap between supply and demand kept increasing till it became acute and unmanageable in late 2007. Therefore, PEPCO had to resort to immense loadshedding. These outages were shielded by resorting to massive loadshedding in rural areas away from the urban areas.
Magnitude of the crisis can be gauged from the fact that the demand for power was 17000 MW on April 20, 2010, which peaked to 20,000 MW by the end June and early July this year. While on the same day a total of 14500 MW were generated by PEPCO (excluding KESC) owing to low hydel generation which was 2300 mw - against a maximum hydel generation capacity of 6761 MW. Presently the demand hovers around 18000 MW became of inundation of large areas of the country and lower temperatures.
The capacity of power plants cannot be tabulated by simply adding the installed capacity of all the power plants in the country established from 1959 to 1992. It depends upon the individual specifications of power houses and their availability during various times of the year.
On installation, power generation equipment reduces in capacity, which thereafter can only be maintained through stringent maintenance and rehabilitation processes. In case of failure or negligence in level of their maintenance, the capacities de-rate like anything. During the last 15 years in general and between 1998 and 2008 in particular, the power sector was denied the required funds leading to overall stunted generation capabilities.
The present available capacity for the whole country is as under. Nuclear Power Stations are categorised as IPPs:
Wapda hydel power capacity: Total hydel capacity is 6,465 MW, including Tarbela 3,478 MW, Mangla 1,000 MW, Ghazi Barotha 1,450 MW, Warsak 243 MW, Chashma 184 MW, Dargai 20 MW, Rasul 22 MW, Shadiwaal 18 MW, Nandipur 14 MW, Kurram Garhi 4 MW, Renala 1 MW, Chitral 1MW and Jagran 30 MW. The bandwidth or the spread of hydro generation is not necessarily 2,424 MW in dead winters or a maximum of 6,761 MW in extreme high water months as contended by some analysts. It was as low as 683 MW during January 2010 (because of poor hydrology) and is presently around 6,000 MW. This is because of various technical issues and loss of required head level on account of flooding of the rivers downstream especially in case of the run-of-the-river plants, like Ghazi Barotha and Chashma.
Pepco thermal power capacities: Total Pepco thermal capacity is 2733 MW including Thermal Power Station (TPS) Jamshoro 655 MW, GTPS KOTRI 127 MW, TPS Guddu 839 MW, TPS Quetta 25 MW, TPS Muzaffar Garh 740 MW, NGPS Multan 47 MW, SPS Faisalabad 70 MW, GTPS Faisalabad 200 MW, FBC Lakhra 30 MW (Power Stations at Panjgur and Pasni were shut down long ago). Due to a variety of reasons, most of the plants have de-rated drastically; many have been decommissioned in the last ten years. Most of these were forced to use Residual Furnace Oil (RFO) instead of gas, which leads to reduction in capacity and lesser availability.
PEPCO has now undertaken a huge re-hab programme containing seven modules, at an economic cost of US $169 million, which will result in recovery of 1015 MW of the lost capacity. These modules primarily include rehabilitation and repowering of public sector Gencos. The first of the modules was completed last month recovering 300 MW of power, while the next four are in various stages of completion under PEPCO and USAID.
The remaining modules will be taken up by PEPCO for completion by the end of 2012. The long gestation is because of the requirement to lay-off the machines in a phased manner. Had extra generation capacity been available or the demand been low, then the re-hab could have been taken up in hand within a year or so.
IPPs thermal power: Total thermal power generated by IPPs is 6594 MW including Kapco 1316 MW, Hubco 1200 MW, KEL 100 MW, AES Lalpir 342 MW, AES Pakgen 342 MW, Sepcol 119 MW, HCPC 111 MW, FKPCL 132 MW, Rousch 390 MW, Saba 125 MW, Japan 65 MW, Uch 548MW, Altern 28 MW, Liberty 200 MW, Chasnupp 300 MW, Jargan 30 MW, Malakand 74 MW AGL 135 MW, Engro 217 MW, Atlas 214 MW, Saif 202 MW, Orient 204 MW and Nishat Power 200 MW.
Total generation capacity of KESC is 1812 MW including TPS Korangi 60 MW, GTPS Korangi 196 MW, GTPS SITE 88 MW, TPS Bin Qasim 1080 MW, RPPs 138 MW, CPPs 20 MW, IPP Gul Ahmad 125 MW, IPP Tapal 125 MW and KANUP 80 MW. (Both TPS Korangi and the GTPS SITE are programmed to be mothballed).
Confusion about the installed power generation capacity and the available power generation has led to the erroneous belief that Pakistan has more power that its demand. Installed capacities are totally different from the available limits. A chunk of MWs is lost in commissioning, some is needed to feed the auxiliaries and a substantial capacity has been lost in de-rating etc. Decommissioning of old power stations too is a norm. Consequently, the power generating capacity of Pakistan, inclusive of all categories is 17,606 MW.
Utility practices cater for scheduled and forced outages of upto 16% of the capacity in case of IPPs (also substantiated in the relevant PPAs) and 20% for older public sector Gencos. After catering for these outages required for maintenance purposes, the maximum available power generation capacity in Pakistan is between 15,000 MW to 15,500 MW, which is far less than the current demand of around 18000 MW. This available capacity is again dependent upon the vagaries of nature in case of hydel generation, which was as low as 683 MW, as was the case early this year.
In view of the above, a very ambitious programme of adding nearly 4,000 MW of new generation was prepared in late 2008 comprising 9 IPPs totalling 1675 MW, 14 RPPs of 2250 MWs and GENCO rehab of 300 MW - all initially scheduled to be available within 2009. Only 437 MW could be added in 2009 due to security issues and delay in commissioning of RPPs for reasons beyond the control of Pepco. The scenario for 2010 is much better. Pepco has added a total of 1708 MW since March 2008 and would Insha Allah add a hefty 2000 MW by December this year. Pepco has also launched a vigorous conservation campaign and co-operation extended by the Provincial Governments and the people has resulted in saving of 1100 MW. The discipline seen in load management after the Energy Summit of late April 2010 is ample testimony of the success achieved through conservation.
The near continuous availability of supply despite unprecedented floods, closure of two big power generating complexes as precautionary measures reinforce the need for continuing discipline in load management. PEPCO is utilising all available generation, while KESC, on the other hand, does save on fuel sometimes and places undue pressure on PEPCO supplies.
In addition to the above, a comprehensive strategy envisaging short term, medium and long term power generation plan is under implementation and, Insha Allah, the country will come out of the present energy crisis. This will be a great feat. Our neighbour India is facing a deficit of 40,000 MW and is destined to remain in the negative for at least next 10 years. Interestingly, people come up with many schemes which according to them are being ignored by the government. There are a few, who spread rumours that our Chinese friends can supply us power at Rs 300 per month. They are only misleading the people.
(The writer is member central council Institution of Electrical & Electronics Engineers Pakistan)