China's soyabean imports are likely to slow from their recent record monthly pace, as costly imported beans turn crushers' margins negative and the potential for sales from state reserves looms over the market. Higher prices for US beans and expensive ocean freight have raised the cost of imports, while sales from state reserves could be needed to make room for the harvest from October.
A slowdown from the near 17 percent increase in soybean imports in the first half of the year would weigh on Chicago Board of Trade futures, given that China buys more than half of the world's traded soybeans. "If we were to see subdued Chinese buying in the soybean market, it will certainly have a negative impact," said Doug Whitehead, a commodities analyst at Rabobank in London.
"You might see the expensive US basis decline, and if it continues to decline then you could start to see an impact on the futures market." Traders said besides rising outright prices - front-month CBOT soybeans are up 11 percent from June lows - soybean premiums at US Gulf ports have doubled to $1.20 a bushel above the November CBOT contract, from around $0.50 to $0.60 a bushel in April, as farmers hold on to stocks. Freight rates have jumped 25 to 30 percent since June to around $66 to $68 a tonne for a panamax vessel carrying beans from US ports to China, grains traders said, lifting the cost of imported soy in China.
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