European investors are wondering whether the historical trend of US stocks rising in the year or so after congressional mid-term elections is about to happen again. One clear issue is whether any loss of control by the ruling Democrats would lead to more-entrenched gridlock and leave the Federal Reserve alone to carry the economic policy can.
But equally, some Europeans wonder whether the removal of political uncertainty, whatever the result, will outweigh the current benefits investors are finding in putting their money elsewhere, given the weak state of the economy.
Reuters latest asset allocation poll of European investors showed exposure to US equities fell in August to their second lowest level in 12 months.
By contrast, holdings of eurozone and UK equities - both of which are benefiting from exposure to ramped up emerging market growth - rose.
Economic news has favoured non-US equities too as the US economy has stumbled worse than others. Economists surveyed by Reuters in early September forecast US GDP to average 2.7 percent in 2010, down from a 2.9 percent projection in an August poll and 3 percent in a July poll.
This has left many large European investors neutral to bearish about US stocks.
Britain's Standard Life Investments, for example, says improved US corporate cash flows are being offset by restrained domestic demand linked to consumer debt and the housing market.
Equity markets themselves reflect the view. It is a low-return year in most places, but while emerging market shares are up more than 5 percent and Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 is up nearly 4 percent, the S&P 500's gains are less than 1 percent.
And year-to-date, US equity funds have seen a net outflow of about $48.4 billion, according to EPFR Global.
While a good portion of all this clearly has more to do with relative economic growth than it does with elections, the approach of the vote for the US House of Representatives and a third of the Senate is part of the mix.
For the Europeans, it is not who wins or who loses the vote that is the main issue. What is key is what is left afterwards.
Michael Dicks, head of investment strategy at Barclays Wealth, wonders about the impact of the Republicans capturing one or both of the US congressional chambers, which some polls suggest is a possibility.
"My main concern is that, post the elections, it will be difficult to get policy shifts through of any significance. Were a negative shock to come along, that would mean that the Fed would be on its own ... and (accordingly) might find it very hard to stimulate activity," he said.
By contrast, Mark Stoeckle, who runs US equities in Boston for France's BNP Paribas Asset Management, reckons any result will allow for more action on taxes and the deficit, neither of which can be dealt with while a political campaign is going on.
He is also hoping that the removal of political uncertainty at least for a while will let US companies feel they can start using some of the cash that they have built up and not spent.
"I'm not totally convinced that they (company managers) are not using the mid-term elections as part of the excuse not to do something," he told Reuters on a trip to London.
This seems to be echoed by others.
Median forecasts from 46 respondents surveyed by Reuters over the past week showed the Standard & Poor's 500 index closing the year at 1,195, 6 percent higher than Thursday's close.
But the big question for globally-focused investors is whether the elections will actually change anything.
If, for example, the likes of Standard Life Investments is keeping a moderate distance from US equities because of consumer debt and the housing market, it is likely that only a change in those economic fundamentals would change the stance.
Similarly, the US elections in themselves are unlikely to change a global investment environment that favours hot emerging markets and countries tied to them through trade. So the good news for those hoping that the mid-terms are only a temporary barrier to US equity growth remains historical.
Strategists at US-based brokerage Auerbach Grayson have calculated that since 1914, the Dow Jones industrial average has gained on average 49.2 percent from its mid-term election year low to its subsequent high in the following presidential election year, two years hence. Currently, that would put the Dow at more than 14,300 sometime in 2012, above its all-time high back in October 2007.
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