Ominous moves for change

That all is not well in Islamabad became obvious enough from Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani's outburst in the National Assembly on Wednesday when he said he would never dissolve the Assembly. And that there are only two ways mid-term elections can be held: "Either I dissolve the assembly or martial law is imposed ... but neither of the two will happen."
Of course, it does not suit his party to call new elections; and the national as well as international environment does not favour a yet new martial law. But there is a third way too that can lead to mid-term polls, that is, if the government's opponents manage to pull an in-house change. In fact, some ominous developments suggest an attempt is under way, which apparently caused the outburst.
The recent Muslim League unification drive is one such sign. But it does not add up to much without the participation of the PML-N, which has at least two good reasons not to embrace the other factions. One obvious reason is its self-image as a strong and popular party which is likely to attain large enough seats in the next election to form a government.
The other is its leader Nawaz Sharif's unsubsiding anger against the party renegades who abandoned him in difficult times to join hands with his tormentor, General Pervez Musharraf, and formed their own faction - the PML-Q. He has maintained that those who actively supported the general, in particular the Chaudhry brothers, will not be accepted by the main party he heads.
Yet, there have been at least two fresh contacts in about as many weeks between the Q and N Leagues. Senators S M Zafar and Tariq Azeem visited the Sharif brothers' Raiwind residence, they said, to talk about merger. The two parties though tried to underplay the significance of the meeting, saying they had come as individuals rather than party representatives.
But in a surprise move on Wednesday Ishaq Dar, a close associate of Nawaz Sharif, walked into Senator Wasim Sajjad's chamber for an hour-long meeting with Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain. It may be recalled that when Law Minister Babar Awan called on the Chaudhry brothers at their Lahore residence, many analysts saw it as an attempt on the part of the PPP government to counter the MQM's pressure tactics.
However, soon enough some of the Q leaguers, like the party's parliamentary leader in the National Assembly, Faisal Saleh Hayat, and another prominent leader from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Amir Muqaam, completely rejected any possibility of working with the PPP. The Dar-Shujaat meeting has shed fresh light on Babar Awan's visit, infusing new life in rumours of change.
There is reason to believe that the PML-N is right when it says it is not interested in heading a new government in the event of an in-house change. With its current modest presence in Parliament it would not like to head a government which is dependent on the goodwill of some pesky coalition partners; it had rather wait for the next election to attain better numerical strength. But it certainly has become interested in fresh elections, making loud demands for it.
So what did they talk about in Wednesday's meeting? It is supposed to have been about the formation of the proposed parliamentary committee for judges' appointment under the 18th Amendment. S M Zafar though has been more forthcoming on the subject. According to him, the latest meeting was a continuation of the previous contact between the two parties, and that it was a "step forward" towards the merger of the two PML factions. As the old saying goes, politics is the art of the possible.
It could be that the N League has arrived at the conclusion that its inflexibility on accepting some of the Q Leaguers would divide the Muslim League vote bank, harming its prospects of forming a strong and stable government in the event of new elections. The timing though is indicative also of the Nawaz League's willingness to lend a helping hand to the alleged moves for an in-house change, in the hope that this would pave the way for fresh elections.