The global recovery shows signs of easing on slowdown in emerging economies but remains on track for 4.6-percent growth this year, dipping to 4.2 percent in 2011, the OECD said on Thursday. Many countries must work harder and faster to cut budget deficits next year and some may have room to offest this for a while with even cheaper money.
The United States should consider continuing relaxed monetary conditions for the next few years, it said but also insisted that in general in leading economies "monetary policy must gradually return to a more normal stance." Eurozone rules for controlling overspending should be tightened, the OECD said.
The OECD left its 2010 global growth forecast unchanged from its last forecast in May at 4.6 percent, and said growth would dip to 4.2 percent next year and then rise to 4.6 percent in 2012. It downgraded the 2010 US estimate to 2.7 percent from 3.2 percent but upgraded the Euro area to 1.7 percent from 1.2 percent.
Japan will do well this year with growth of 3.7 percent, up from the previous estimate of 3.0 percent, but then fall away sharply to 1.7 percent in 2011 and 1.3 percent in 2012. For the 33 OECD countries as a whole, growth was put at 2.8 percent for 2010, falling to 2.3 percent next year and then back to 2.8 percent in 2012.
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