The two Koreas

Over the last 60 years or so, the Korean Peninsula has never been tension-free, with periodic spurts of violence on the common border between the South Korea and North Korea. Invariably, each of these escalations has generated fears of things getting out of control leading to an all-out war between the two countries.
The exchange of artillery fire between them across the contested maritime border on Tuesday, which led to the deaths of two South Korean soldiers and injuries to about a dozen civilians was, therefore, no exception to such fears. While the South has accused Pyongyang of an unprovoked attack the North says that it had responded to artillery fire from the other side, which is presently conducting military drills in the area. How much tempers get flared on both sides with the graphic warnings sounded following the clash, should leave no one in doubt about the mutual animosity that runs deep.
As the South scrambled its jets it promised "stern retaliation", to get the riposte of a "merciless response...if the South Koreans approached even within 0.001 millimeter of our maritime territory". North Korea doesn't recognise the maritime border, alleging it was unilaterally drawn by the United Nations at the end of the Korean War. The question: Couldn't Seoul avoid conducting military exercise in the disputed area if nothing else but to help a resumption of the stalled six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear programme?
On the face of it, the latest clash between the two rival Korean states is just a continuation of the undying hostility between them. Only a few months back, a South Korean ship was torpedoed and sunk causing 47 deaths, for which Seoul accused the other side. Pyongyang denied any hand in that incident. But to the latest clash there is a background, which is not as simple as to fit into the pattern of their historical rivalry. It came following some important developments. One, President Obama was in South Korea early this month on what appeared to be a business trip, but strategic writers tend to see his visit as part of the China-containment campaign.
Two, over the weekend renowned American nuclear analyst, Siegfried Hocker, happened to see "rows after rows of centrifuges" at a uranium enrichment facility, which, till then, was not in the knowledge of the outside world. That he was treated to this "jaw dropping" spectacle by North Korea on purpose, is evident by his statement that "You have to address the fundamentals of North Korean security". South Korean analysts say that North Korea is raining these antes to force the United States to come to the dialogue table. Yet another 'incentive' said to have driven the alleged artillery attack by the North is its leadership's move to seek public support and media space for Kim Jong Enu, the third son of Kim Jong Il who is the heir apparent, by projecting him as a brave leader.
As expected, the United States, with 28,000 of its combat troops stationed in South Korea, is angry over the artillery clash, but others in the region and beyond are not critical of the North alone. Russia says the incident such as this is a "colossal danger" and China is quite even-handed, confining its reaction to a call that both the Koreas "do more to contribute to peace". Of course, the threat to international peace posed by the tensions on the Korean peninsula remains, and North Korea's nuclear programme adds to its criticality, requiring early resumption of the six-party parleys. But it won't be rational to think that this can be done by exerting one-sided pressure on Pyongyang, as President Obama would like.
There has to be international guarantees for foolproof security for the North, coupled with clear moves for global non-proliferation. That the armistice that brought the Korean War to an end has yet to be converted into a peace treaty after six decades only attests to that one-sided pressure. Yes, such a denial may be of some military advantage to the United States, but it remains an obstacle to fuller restoration of peace in the region, which is home to the world's three large economies, of China, Japan and South Korea. Instead of looking at the North Korean military posturing as 'blackmail', the international community must restore the confidence of the hermit communist state in the United Nations' neutrality, by seeking to water down the sanctions that are in force against Pyongyang to dispossess it of its nuclear option.