Modi all the way?

Despite a slowing economy and rising communal tensions, Narendra Modi still remains wildly popular in India more than three years after the BJP’s landslide victory over Congress in 2014. A recent Pew Research Center report notes that 88 percent of Indians have a favourable view of Modi; 83 percent feel that current state of economy is good; and 70 percent are satisfied with direction of their country.

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Those sentiments – gauged by Pew among roughly 2,500 respondents in February and March earlier this year – are sharp improvements over the feelings an Indian sample reported just months before Modi’s coronation in 2014. Pew also says Modi’s party BJP remains highly favourable (84%), compared to the closest rival Congress (59%) and its heir apparent Rahul Gandhi (58%).

Let’s recap broadly what has gone down in India since Modi came to power.

Electorally, BJP is an even stronger force today than it was in 2014. Under Modi, BJP has won eight out of sixteen state legislative elections held so far. Critically, the party has painted orange onto some Congress-dominated states as well. More states go to elections shortly, and Modi is expected to continue campaigning in person in those states.

Economically, it’s arguably a mixed bag. GDP growth has slowed in recent quarters. Some analysts attribute the year-to-date slowdown to stumbles that were cash-starving ‘demonetization’ and the patchy rollout of the ‘goods and services tax’ – at a time when not enough jobs are being created to absorb 12 million Indians entering workforce every year.

But some analysts view those steps as necessary to curb informality. They also argue that Modi, after consolidating his party’s political power through state election victories, has been moving rather swiftly on reforms lately. Some of the recent ‘reformist’ measures include a new, inflation-centric monetary policy framework, recapitalization of sick banks, direct welfare transfers to the poor, and a new bankruptcy code. Last week when Moody’s upgraded India’s sovereign credit rating for the first time in thirteen years (Baa2), the rating agency was also looking more towards a future filled with reforms instead of the past.

Socially, India’s outlook seems to have taken a nationalist turn, causing disharmony among different religions and castes. The Hindutva ideology of Modi’s alma mater RSS is serving to marginalize the minorities, especially Muslims. Hard-line attitudes are finding space in the Indian mainstream, including through BJP politicians making insensitive comments. Freedom of expression seems limited.

Overseas, India, under Modi, has been asserting its weight rather forcefully. Modi was the first Indian leader to so decisively ally his hitherto non-aligned country with the United States. His government is also cutting major defence deals with the US and France. Despite the rising communal troubles and economic unease at home, the Indian diaspora still remains long on Modi.

It is likely that Modi’s governing coalition will get re-elected in the 2019 polls. For Indo-Pak observers, the prospect of Modi’s re-election raises an intriguing question: will it lead to some breakthroughs or will it simply be more of the same tense environment on both sides?

Nawaz and Modi had gotten off to a great start. But the goodwill gestures weren’t enough to get the ball rolling. Nawaz couldn’t build an institutional consensus (on better relations with India) here in Pakistan, just as Modi’s government couldn’t resist responding to every hostile act meant to destabilize bilateral talks. Now, both sides regularly trade barbs, with an intensity that is really unfortunate.

It is clear that Modi, India’s undisputed leader at the time, wants to become a regional leader and have some global clout as well. While India’s relations with Afghanistan, Iran and Bangladesh have grown under his watch, continued bad blood with Pakistan and killings in Kashmir don’t help Modi’s ambition. Looked another way, Pakistan may also be playing a spoiler to Modi’s international designs. In any case, such hostility is not sustainable, as it distracts from improving the living standards of both countries.