The dollar rose to a four-month high versus the euro and a one-month high against a basket of currencies on Friday ahead of US jobs data, although dollar bulls risked disappointment if it falls short of expectations.
A sell-off in peripheral eurozone government bonds before a flurry of supply next week, an EU proposal that could force those who lend to banks to bear big losses should they fail and weaker-than-expected German retail sales numbers all combined to knock the single currency lower.
The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies to 81.076, its highest since early December. The index has gained over 2 percent this week, benefiting from a slew of upbeat US data including a report that showed a record number of private sector jobs were created in December.
This prompted analysts to upgrade their forecasts for non-farm payrolls to increase 175,000, up from 140,000 in an earlier Reuters survey. Some in the market are far more ambitious, looking for an increase of more than 450,000. "There is a lot of weight that is being given to the US jobs numbers and even if we get a decent number, there is a real risk that we could see a bounce in euro/dollar," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.
"I am still not optimistic about the US economy and interest rates." Traders will also await Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to the Senate. Faced with a newly-empowered Republican Party that is sceptical of the Fed's latest attempt to stimulate the US economy, many expect Bernanke to temper some of the optimism surrounding the recent rebound in economic data.
While the focus centred on the US economy, eurozone problems festered in the background, weighing on the euro. The cost of insuring single-name eurozone sovereign debt against default rose, with Spanish, Portuguese and Italian credit default swaps (CDS) approaching record highs.
The euro fell to $1.2960 on trading platform EBS, after sliding more than 2 percent over the two previous days and briefly dipped below support in the $1.2970 area - lows hit in late November and early December. Traders reported option barriers at $1.2950 with stop-losses below. The euro edged back to stand at $1.2973 late in the European morning.
"A weaker-than-forecast non-farm payrolls will see a potential 150 point squeeze in euro/dollar but I see momentum and price action remaining with the euro bears into the weekend," said a London-based spot trader. The dollar rose to a two-week high of 83.60 yen on EBS. This was partially driven by dollar demand from hedge funds, traders said. Exporter offers were said to be lurking above 84.50 yen, right around the greenback's mid-December peak of 84.51 yen.
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