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Canadian bond and money market yields are expected to rise steadily this year, but forecasts for the rise in short-term yields have come down from two months ago on dovish language from the Bank of Canada.
A Reuters poll released this week showed investors still expect yields to rise across the curve as the economy recovers and the Bank of Canada tightens monetary policy. But the expected pace of the rise at the short end fell after the central bank signalled it may keep rates on hold for longer than markets had anticipated. This week's money market and bond yields poll found the median forecast for the two-year bond yield, currently 1.68 percent, trading at 2.5 percent by the end of the year. The call is just slightly weaker than the consensus in the November poll.
The 10-year bond yield, at 3.25 percent, is expected to advance to 3.6 percent by the end of the second-quarter and 3.85 percent by year-end. This was slightly higher than similar forecasts in November.
The poll predicted three-month T-bill yields, now at 0.96 percent, will rise to 1.0 percent by the end of the first quarter, 1.25 percent by the end of the second, and 1.85 percent by the end of the year.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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