What the stars (or other heavenly bodies for that matter) foretell!? Wrong expression! I use it only as a metaphor. Those heavenly objects adorn the sky and do not tell or foretell anything. They are merely there to display the splendor of Allah's creation and to serve us in various ways.
For example, they light our way at times and show us where we are or which way we are headed on earth or on the waters of the oceans, in space or anywhere else: mere reference points with no influence or power to alter or forecast our destiny, whatever some people on programmes on several TV channels have to claim. However, let me not digress further.
TWO OPPOSITE PROJECTIONS Politics in the country is in the melting pot. So everyone is busy making forecasts or discussing what is going to happen to governance in this country over the next year or two. Having ruled out astrology as of no consequence in the matter, let us turn to logic and past experience to venture into the field of educated conjecture.
The current political scenario is dominated by two major political parties, which have ruled the country over its entire history except when men in uniform threw them out or their own misrule caused their downfall. Both are under dictatorial or hereditary leaders. The hold of their chiefs over their parties is near absolute. Without their approval no position in the party or a ticket for contesting an election can be awarded to any aspirant. The second tiers in the party are forced to toe the party line and to defend every action - right or wrong - of their chief if they do not wish to be sidelined or even expelled from the party. A hereditary approach is highly visible in grooming new leadership to eventually replace the present leaders. Sons, sons-in-law, brothers and sisters gain easy access to responsible positions in the party without having done anything to earn it.
Two theories juxtaposed to each other are going round at the moment. One says nothing is going to change after the next general elections (assuming they will be held as per schedule in 2013 or is it late 2012) in the context of the way we are governed or in respect of those who will rule over us. The proponents of this view argue as follows:
NOTHING WILL CHANGE! Despite the above bleak picture of the two main political parties, so runs the argument, the very same parties are the ones, which will come to power again with majorities or near majorities at the federal level and in provinces. They are the parties with long experience in contesting elections and, one may add, in cheating in them in a hundred different ways, big and small, crude and subtle. They have smoothly running election machineries in the party and no shortage of money from ill-gotten gains including those from their previous spells in power or from hefty bank loans not paid back. The party chiefs and top-echelon people in the parties are people possessing great wealth in the shape of big properties, lands (in own name or in the name of family, friends or servants), mills and factories, huge businesses and billions stashed away in banks and safe havens in Pakistan and abroad.
Thus armed with money, trained functionaries, well oiled election machinery, countless tricks up their sleeve, they are in a position to outmanoeuvre and rout any political Johnny-come-lately. Outside of these parties, there are no leaders of stature in the country, no party apparatus of the size needed, no resources to match, not many well-known party functionaries, who could be candidates with wide face-recognition. So, despite everything, the same people will get elected, more or less.
GOVERNANCE IN THE POST-MUSHARRAF ERA That is one view. The other and opposite view is that the days of the currently dominant political parties are numbered. The PPP has missed the chance it had with Musharraf's fall to set an example of good governance, to eschew a lavish lifestyle at the cost of the taxpayer, to control corruption, to at least begin moving towards fulfilling its promise to provide "Roti, Kapra and Makan" to the masses, to apprehend targeted killers in Karachi, who have killed hundreds in recent months and show no sign of stopping, to stop the haemorrhage in public sector mega corporations like Pakistan Steel, OGDC, PIA, Pak Railways, NILC, NLC by appointing honest and competent people to run them and thereby to establish some semblance of credibility for itself in the country and abroad.
But what actually happened. Quite the opposite! In all these vital areas the failure of the government was so comprehensive and so spectacular that it defies description. After three years of rule, the PPP government and its allies has reduced the country to a basket case for now and for well into the foreseeable future. We are soon about to enter an era when the government may not be able to pay for its bread and butter requirement without dole from donors or without heedlessly using the State Bank as a printing press to print more and yet more currency notes with all its horrendous implications. On the war against terror, the government has sat on its haunches throughout its three years in office. Its only action in respect of the rising tide of corruption was to raise it to new levels by appointing people accused of high crime themselves to head ministries and departments whose responsibility it is to eradicate corruption. It is shamelessly active in thwarting the efforts of the judiciary to check corruption and bad governance.
NOW WHAT ABOUT THE OPPOSITION? Has the opposition embodied by the Nawaz League, which is also the main ruling party in Punjab, played its due role? Alas, it has also miserably failed in its role of the opposition at the federal level. It has no vision, no party structure and no blueprint of how exactly it would set things right if it came to power. Instead of effectively opposing disastrous policies of the PPP government and bringing some good to the situation in the country, it has been perfectly happy to merely watch the government damaging the country by its policies, letting the ruling party do its worst so that like a ripe fruit the mandate to rule next falls into its lap. It does not realize that things may not happen that way.
People may not forgive the PML-N its acts of omission. Except for making hard hitting speeches in the Parliament now and then and issuing statements once a quarter or so it has done precious little to raise its voice against government's catastrophic policies or to offer a viable alternative. Nawaz Sharif as the party supermo has mysteriously dilly dallied with his role as the chief of the main opposition party. Content to be a Punjab party, the PML-N has made no efforts to organise itself in other provinces or to garner grassroots support through projecting a vision and getting people to share it. The PPP may be setback in the elections to come but it does not mean that its loss will automatically be Nawaz Leagues gain.
THE OTHER VIEW - EVERYTHING IS ABOUT TO CHANGE Based on the bleak performance picture of the ruling party as well as the opposition, the other view is that the stage is set for dramatic developments, which will sweep away both the big parties to ignominy. It is never going to be the same they theorise. Hatred for the privileged class has reached its zenith. On the one side are the suffering millions with not enough to feed themselves let alone cater to education and health needs of their family. Unable to see little children suffering pangs of hunger day in and day out, parents have started offering children for sale to the more affluent or taking their own lives. On the other side, is the lavish lifestyle of our rulers using imported stuff for daily use, with huge staff, palaces, extra-strong security, scores of cars in tow whenever they move. In short people have had it up to their neck and are now ready to pay back. With Media not allowing anything to be swept under the carpet, we could see civil disobedience, riots on the streets, dharnas no end, (Heavens forbid) widespread looting and eventually and not implausibly Tunis and Egypt style open revolt.
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