The zloty is seen leading currency gains in Central Europe in the next 12 months, while possible monetary policy loosening in Hungary could limit any gains by the forint, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. The poll of 36 analysts conducted between February 28 and March 2 projects that the zloty could firm 5.6 percent in the next year relative to Wednesday's market close.
The Czech crown could strengthen 1.5 percent, the leu 1.2 percent and the forint 0.7 percent. Poland reported robust 4.4 percent annual economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2010 on Wednesday. The data confirmed that Poland leads economic recovery in the region, but the zloty slipped after Poland's central bank (NBP) disappointed some investors by not raising interest rates further at a meeting on Wednesday.
NBP Governor Marek Belka said after the meeting that a rise in global oil prices and unrest in North Africa and the Middle East had weighed on the zloty, which has underperformed Central European peers this year. The NBP cited weak wage pressure and high unemployment as reasons not to raise rates further after an increase to 3.75 percent in January.
But many analysts expect monetary tightening to continue next month and higher rates could fuel zloty firming.
The median poll forecast sees the zloty strengthening to 3.93 per euro by the end of this month from Wednesday's close of 3.98, to 3.85 in six months and to 3.77 in 12 months' time. The forint is expected to post the smallest 12-month gains in the region. The analysts' consensus sees it easing to 274 per euro by the end of March from around 271.25 on Wednesday, but it could strengthen to 269.50 in a year's time.
Comments
Comments are closed.