The euro jumped to a four-month high against the dollar on Monday as expectations of a eurozone interest rate hike next month helped it vault back above $1.40 and a ratings downgrade of Greece had little lasting impact. Traders said the shared currency was on course to test last November's highs in the $1.4080-1.4280 area, supported by steady buying from real money accounts and as interest rate differentials remained in focus despite rising oil prices and turmoil in Libya.
The euro rose 0.35 percent to a four-month high of $1.4035, according to Reuters data. Having breached resistance at its early February peak of $1.3862 during last week's rally, one possible upside euro target is now $1.4283, a peak hit on EBS in early November.
Gains accelerated on Monday as stop loss orders were triggered on the break of $1.4005 and $1.4025, though the rally stalled ahead of an options barrier at $1.4050. More option barriers are said to be placed at $1.41 "Sentiment is bullish at the moment and we could see a test of the 1.4080/00 area," said Richard Wiltshire, chief foreign exchange dealer at ETX Capital.
"The euro will stay bid on any dips ahead of April's rate announcement. I would assume they can't change their rhetoric, and we have seen a growing number of ECB officials talking about rate hikes sooner rather than later". The common currency has been strong since European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet surprised investors on Thursday by saying that interest rates may rise as early as next month.
Latest data showed speculators' long euro positions at their highest level since January 2008. Analysts said positioning looked stretched, which could leave the euro vulnerable to a bout of profit-taking. But any dip could see more investors buy the currency, traders said.
Speaking as chair of talks at a Bank of International Settlements meeting, Trichet said on Monday that central banks world-wide are unified in seeking to anchor inflationary expectations, comments which had little impact on the euro. The euro's rise made the dollar index cede ground and fall to a four-month low of 76.124. The euro had lost ground after Moody's slashed Greece's debt rating by three notches and kept it on review for a further possible downgrade, but the falls proved short-lived. The euro was steady against the yen at 115.06 and rose 0.3 percent to 1.2976 francs. A trader for a major Japanese bank in Tokyo said Japanese exporters sold the euro on Friday as it rallied, and added they might still try to sell the euro above 115 yen.
Comments
Comments are closed.