For sleuths of Mexico monetary policy, new clues

Mexico's reclusive central bankers have begun to leave fingerprints on monetary policy decisions - clues on hawkish or dovish views that markets and analysts hold dear in predicting the path of rates. The policymaking tussles are now being given a public airing in the minutes of the central bank's rate-setting meetings, which were released for the first time in February after years of secrecy.
When the latest notes were released last week, only the second time ever, analysts scoured the 14 pages for signs that the four-member board was either inching toward a rate hike or happy to sit still for a while longer. The Bank of Mexico has kept interest rates at 4.5 percent since July 2009. Signs that the economy is finally stirring are fueling speculation about when the bank might raise rates.
The minutes of the March meeting showed one board member argued that the central bank should prepare the public for the chance of a pre-emptive hike to keep inflation in check. By contrast, another warned premature action could hurt the recovery. Analysts are now trying to identify the voices simply recorded as "one member" or "another member" in order to get a better grasp on whose arguments will prevail.
Among the unattributed comments in the minutes, two analysts thought they recognised the voice of Manuel Sanchez, a US-trained economist, one-time newspaper columnist and academic who came to the central bank from BBVA Bancomer, in the more tolerant views on inflation. Another analyst mused that central bank chief Agustin Carstens might be heard in several places not as an inflation hawk or dove but a Socratic teacher stirring debate.
The ultimate aim of releasing minutes is to help the public understand the thinking that underpins policymakers' decisions, Sanchez told Reuters. "That's what matters more than the names and, so far, I think the minutes are working well," he said. Mexico's last central bank chief, Guillermo Ortiz, opposed publishing minutes when he was in charge from 1998 to 2009. Having taken the helm only four years after the bank gained its independence, he was fiercely protective of its autonomy. "The point that I had against (minutes) was that eventually the markets would have caught on who was the hawk and who was the dove," Ortiz told reporters this week.