Russia's 2011 grain harvest forecast range to 90 million tonnes

The Russian Agriculture Ministry raised the upper end of its 2011 grain harvest forecast range to 90 million tonnes, local news agencies said on Friday, increasing the prospect of a possible resumption in exports. Officials have previously said Russia - the former No 3 wheat exporter which banned exports last summer following a severe drought - could resume grain sales abroad if the harvest reaches 85 million tonnes.
Deputy Agriculture Minister Shamil Vakhitov said the total grain sowing area this year could reach 45 million hectares. "This will enable us to have a gross grain harvest of 85-90 million tonnes," Interfax news agency quoted him as saying.
The new, upbeat forecast comes even as the Russian Grain Union, a powerful industry lobby, last week warned of weather-related risks to the crop after cold weather delayed spring sowing by about three weeks. Previously, the Agriculture Ministry had forecast a harvest of around 85-87 million tonnes, while the Grain Union estimates it at 86 million tonnes. Russia had bumper harvests of 97 million tonnes in 2009/10 and 108 million in 2008/09.
The worst drought in a century killed a third of Russia's crop last year, slashing the harvest to just 61 million tonnes, sending food prices soaring and prompting the government to ban grain exports from August 15, 2010 to July 1, 2011.
Authorities are hoping for a decent harvest this year to help keep a lid on inflation, as voters cite surging prices among top concerns ahead of December parliamentary elections. Subject to the harvest, the central bank is still hoping for full year consumer price inflation of no more than 7 percent, even as analysts have raised their forecasts to 9 percent.
Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said last week that Russia will consider lifting the export ban only after the size of this year's harvest is known in late September or October, adding that Russia requires 85-87 million tonnes to cover its own needs. That would suggest it would have an exportable surplus of up to 5 million tonnes if the harvest reaches 90 million tonnes.